Mail-in ballot gap
Despite the coronavirus outbreak, tens of thousands of Lehigh Valley voters were able to vote thanks to the timely expansion of mail-in ballots. The
change passed in Harrisburg in 2019 on a bipartisan vote, and allowed residents to cast ballots without possibly being exposed to the virus.
The measure proved popular, and was particularly crucial in Northampton County, after flawed touchscreens and a faulty ballot created a lack of confidence in new voting machines used in the November 2019 general election. Republican and Democrat leaders called on voters to use mail-in ballots as an alternative.
But Democrats far outpaced Republicans in voting by mail last month. In Northampton County, 72% of the 36,849 mailin and absentee ballots cast came from Democratic voters.
Lehigh County has not released its final breakdown of the 47,000 mail-in ballots cast, but it’s believed Democrats enjoyed a similarly higher turnout.
Northampton County Republican Committee Chairperson Lee Snover acknowledged the gap needs to close before November, but she has a tough task. President Donald Trump has repeatedly cast doubts about the security of the ballots, which seemingly discouraged Republicans from voting by mail. On Monday, Trump’s campaign sued Pennsylvania over the use of mail-in ballot drop-off points.
Snover did not challenge Trump’s critiques of the ballots but admitted Democrats have a practical advantage.
“We have this new game, and I need to work in these parameters,” she said. “It actually turns people against me thinking I’m promoting the mail-in ballots.”
If there’s a spot in Pennsylvania where closing that gap is essential, it may be Northampton County. It was one of three counties that supported former President Barack Obama in 2012 but flipped to Trump in 2016, helping Trump win Pennsylvania, considered a key battleground state.
Democrats account for 56% of voters registered with one of the two major parties in Northampton County, meaning the Democrats’ advantage in the use of mail-in ballots could be significant come November.
American politics has become extremely polarized, and mail-in ballots are just the latest example, said Chris Borick, professor of political science and director of the Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion. Trump views the mail-in ballots as a threat to his presidency, Borick said, and he’s using his platform to attack it.
That strategy is proving to be a double-edged sword, Borick said. While it might prevent more states from adopting mailin ballots, it’s making it difficult for his campaign to encourage Republican voters who won’t be able to visit their polling place.
“It’s a little bit of a conundrum for the president and his supporters,” Borick said.
Preparing for voter surge
Northampton County was one of a handful of counties across the state to report its primary results hours after the polls closed. Most others were similar to Lehigh County, where it took three days to finish an initial count of the hotly contested Allentown state representative race.
But barring a change in state law, no one expects a quick release of numbers in November. Northampton County Chief Registrar Amy Cozze expects the county will be inundated with nearly 100,000 mail-in ballots for the general election, a three-fold increase from the primary. Lehigh County Chief Clerk of Elections Timothy Benyo is expecting a similar surge, saying a 200% increase — or nearly 95,000 mail-in ballots — would be a conservative estimate.
The main hangup? The amended state law allows county elections offices to start counting mail-in ballots at 7 a.m. Election Day, when polls open. But even with dedicated crews and several machines to help automate the process, it’s not enough time to open the envelopes, smooth the ballots, load them into scanning machines and document the results.
Legislators are considering bills to ease the process, including one by Rep. Dan Moul, R-Adams. His legislation would let elections offices open envelopes and smooth ballots for up to three weeks before the election. The actual counting would begin Election Day. The bill passed through the House’s State Committee but was sent to the Rules Committee last week.
To ensure the sanctity of the ballots, observers from both parties would be allowed and the workers would be filmed. The work of preparing the ballots to be scanned slowed down operations during the primary and could prove disastrous in November if not corrected. Moul also wants to add a bar code to the ballot to make it easier for election officials to determine if someone voted.
“If we don’t pass a bill that has the same underlying message as mine, Pennsylvania will not have the results of the election until the following week,” Moul said.
Northampton County was better prepared than most others for the primary mail-in ballots because of its problems in the November 2019 general election. A programming error in the digital ballot of its voting machines lost hundreds of thousands of votes. Staff wound up working through the night, loading the paper ballots to determine the winner. The experience taught Cozze and others it needed better equipment.
On primary day, Northampton County had about two dozen workers, two industrial envelope openers and three highspeed ballot scanners working throughout the day to keep up with the growing tide of mail-in ballots.
“Overall, I really can’t be happier. The results came in earlier than even I had anticipated. It would be great if every election ran so smoothly,” Cozze said.
In Lehigh County, Benyo said having just three small envelope-opening machines created a bottleneck, especially after one’s motor burned out.
“They were not even close to being industrial enough to handle the volume we got. If we had gotten the 9,000 ballots we had expected in the beginning, we would have been fine,” Benyo said of the machines.
For the general election, Benyo plans on imitating Northampton County’s setup, getting better envelope openers and adding a high-end ballot scanning machine.
Campaign tactics may change
The coronavirus has disrupted the world economy and everyday life, so it’s little surprise that it played a similar role in politics. Lehigh County Democratic Committee Chairperson Ed Hozza credited the virus with upending the state auditor general race.
Michael Lamb, Pittsburgh’s controller and uncle of U.S. Rep. Connor Lamb, was the favorite for the race, Hozza said. However, Nina Ahmad, a former Philadelphia deputy mayor, won behind a string of successful TV ads.
The pandemic has made oldfashioned door-to-door campaigning next to impossible, while leaving millions of people stuck at home with little to do. As a result, more people are turning to television, making TV ads more important than ever.
“It’s pretty smart. Think of the number of people that were quarantined who didn’t necessarily watch the news prior to COVID but are now because of COVID,” Hozza said.
Borick wasn’t sure the effects would dramatically alter strategies. Presidential and statewide races already rely heavily on TV ads and online spots. But Borick agreed their importance will likely grow compared with past years.
“Money always matters. When you can’t really do the door-to-door stuff, those other ad buys are more important than ever,” Borick said.
It remains to be seen if that will be a factor in the local congressional race, where Democratic incumbent Susan Wild is pitted against former Lehigh County Commissioner Lisa Scheller, the multimillionaire business owner. FEC filings show Wild has raised $2.1 million compared with Scheller’s $1 million, but Scheller has loaned her campaign $600,000 and could dig deeper into her own pockets if needed.