GOP takes lumps, sticks with Trump
His influence persists despite mixed results with local voters
Donald Trump is all but officially a one-term president, but his influence over the Republican Party in the Lehigh Valley isn’t going away anytime soon.
Glenn Eckhart and Lee Snover, chairs of the Republican committees in Lehigh and Northampton counties, said this week they have begun meeting and recruiting candidates for 2021’s municipal races. And while recent elections in the Lehigh Valley have gone poorly for Republicans since Trump won office, party officials aren’t ready to distance themselves from the president who still commands a loyal, vocal following.
“There are going to be MAGA who want to keep the movement alive,” said Snover, referring to Trump’s supporters by his Make America Great Again slogan. Snover was one of Trump’s earliest and most vocal backers in Pennsylvania, and she attracted national and even international attention after Northampton County flipped from supporting Obama in 2008 and 2012 to Trump in 2016.
But while Trump has attracted a contingent of loyal supporters, that hasn’t translated to success in other races. Since 2017, Lehigh County Republicans lost control of the Board of Commissioners for the first time since the early 1980s. Northampton County Democrats won back control of the county executive’s office and a majority on County Council. Democrat Susan Wild became the region’s U.S. representative, winning a congressional seat Republicans had held for 20 years.
“It’s been a dark period for the Lehigh Valley GOP since the president’s victory in 2016. It’s just hard to spin it any other way,” said Christopher Borick, director of the Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion and a professor of political science at the college.
But American politics often presents new opportunities, and Trump Republicans will have plenty in 2021. In Northampton County, Democrats control four of the five County Council seats plus the county executive position on the ballot. Republicans may have a hard time winning the two Democratic-controlled district seats on the Lehigh County Board of Commissioners, but the election will provide Republicans a chance to seize the county executive seat for the first time since 2005.
Snover declined to paint an overriding agenda her candidates will pursue, saying each will have their own priorities they’ll want to identify. Instead, they’ll bring a commitment to conservative principles and action. Old-guard Republicans, she said, were too focused on protecting political norms.
“The Trump Republican is about doers. It’s about populism. People tired of things never getting done,” she said.
Eckhart, the Lehigh County chair, said in a series of text messages he had been meeting with potential candidates and was optimistic about the future of the party given how Trump shifted the political dynamic. He was not available for further comment.
“Reagan Democrats, union members, blue-collar folks and small business will continue to be the new core of the party,” he wrote.
But Borick said continuing to embrace Trump was a risky strategy. While Trump’s populist message earned him die-hard supporters, his divisive rhetoric and break from traditional party policies inflamed Democrats and drove moderates away from the Republican Party.
Those schisms create difficult circumstances for Republicans in the Lehigh Valley, Borick said. While conversations within both the Democratic and Republican parties have shifted to more extreme wings, such as Trump for conservatives and Sen. Bernie Sanders for progressives, the Lehigh Valley electorate has historically favored moderates. Borick pointed to the staying power of former U.S. Rep. Charlie Dent and Northampton County District Attorney, now Judge, John Morganelli as examples.
“It is a strategy that I’m not sure how it pays off in the end. If you keep going down that path, you’re preaching to the choir. Is that going to rally more moderate voters?” Borick asked.
Dent shared Borick’s mindset. He noted that down-ballot Republicans outperformed Trump both locally and across the country. Voters provided a mandate to the political center, not Democrats or Republicans. For Republicans to succeed, they need to become more tolerant to win over voters in the suburbs that wanted nothing to do with Trump.
“What part of losing do they like?” Dent said, noting the party’s poor track record since shifting to Trump. “The Republican Party has to find a way to be more inclusive. If they’re trying to win back those swing areas, showing up in a MAGA hat isn’t going to work.”
Both Borick and Dent noted that not everything is gloom and doom for the GOP. American election cycles tend to favor the party that most recently lost the White House, as supporters become motivated to come back strong. Tea Party Republicans swept to power in 2009 a year after Barack Obama won the presidency in the same way Democrats stormed back following Trump’s 2016 victory.
“They have to get candidates that can win, in many cases against incumbents that are also generally hard to beat. There’s an opening, and it certainly will have the wind at their back,” Borick said.
Snover is convinced the secret will be empowering strong candidates. She said she’s been encouraged by interest expressed by some potential candidates for the coming election. In her book, that means candidates who will not only invest their time and energy into the race but also embrace that Trump Republican persona.
“As county chairman, I can’t prevent someone from running,” she said. “We may have MAGA versus the old guard.”