START TO FINISH Phils need Nola, others in rotation to go deeper, help bullpen in 2021

After leading the National League in starts in 2019, Phillies ace/right-handed starter Aaron Nola achieved another milestone in 2020. He pitched the first two complete games of his Phillies career.

Incredibly, that also was good enough to lead the league. Yet after six seasons, he still hasn’t pitched in the ninth inning of a major league game. Stay with us. We’ll explain.

This oddity is brought to you by your friendly neighborhood coronavirus pandemic, which in 2020 was responsible for baseball mutating into a sport that was unrecognizable at times — with the designated hitter in the National League, a runner placed at second base to start extra innings and doubleheaders consisting of seven-inning games.

Nola completed two of those seven-inning contests, including a loss at Washington in which he pitched only six innings. Hence the skewed statistics.

But those measurements aren’t very important in the grand scheme of figuring out a way for the Phillies to make it back to the postseason for the first time since 2011.

What is crucial is Nola being able to deliver down the stretch — which is something he’s struggled with his entire career.

In his 27 post-August career starts, Nola is 7-14 with a 4.28 earned run average. Those are poor numbers for a pitcher who trends the right way in just about every other area.

Nola is 58-40 with a 3.47 ERA in 139 career starts. He made the All-Star team in 2018, when he went 17-6. Nola has been an elite pitcher in the majors and a workhorse who’s started more games than any pitcher in baseball over the previous three seasons.

But when he had a chance to pitch the Phillies into the expanded playoffs in the final game of last season, he faltered and was knocked out in the fourth inning of a 5-0 loss.

“That game obviously sticks with me because, one game away, we make the playoffs if we win,” Nola told reporters in a Zoom chat after reporting to Clearwater, Fla. for the start of spring training. “Didn’t pitch well. It sat with me. At times in that game I did, but at times I didn’t. It was fastpaced for me because I always had guys on base in every inning. No matter if it was that game or any other game, it makes it hard to pitch when guys are on base every inning with no outs.”

“It’s something we’ve looked at,” added second-year manager Joe Girardi. “I don’t really know how to evaluate last year, because I was not with Aaron [before]. But he’s an extreme worker.”

In search of better results.

But it’s not just Nola, it’s their entire staff, including a bullpen that turned 21 leads into losses in a season that featured just 60 games.

But part of any bullpen’s struggles can always be traced back to the starters not being able to eat up enough innings. This will be crucial for the Phillies this year, to lessen the strain on their relievers.

While better September performances will be needed by Nola, more innings will be needed by the rest of the starters.

Last year, Zach Eflin gave them just 59.1 innings in 11 appearances, 10 of them starts. Jake Arrieta averaged less than five full innings per start. Vince Velazquez (5.56) and Spencer Howard (5.92) finished with dreadful ERAs, though both have live arms

This year, Arrieta is gone, but Matt Moore and Chase Anderson are in and not exactly inspiring confidence.

Anderson went 1-2 with 7.22 ERA for the Blue Jays last year.

Moore is a lefthander who in 2017 led the National League in losses (15) and earned runs (107) and in 2013 lead the majors with 17 wild pitches.

Other than Nola and Zack Wheeler, the other three

spots in the rotation are open and in desperate need of an upgrade from 2020, or it probably won’t matter how good the bullpen might be.

Howard is the most intriguing of these prospects. The 24-year-old can throw a fastball 98 miles an hour and has looked good by all accounts during the first week of camp. But his velocity last year decreased with each inning pitched, which supports the argument that his future is in the bullpen.

Girardi hinted that could be the case but that they’re still trying to figure out who goes where.

“I think you have to be open-minded in how you use Spence this year,” he said. “It’s a good problem if everyone is throwing the ball really well. He has the ability to do both roles.”

Girardi pointed out how starters can go to the bullpen and then come back to be great starters. Howard could fit that mold, and the manager will have to be careful of his innings and warm-ups if Howard begins the season in the bullpen.

However the Phillies elect to get better performances from their starters, the ends will have justified the means.

They need their starters, even Nola, to be better just as much as they need their bullpen to improve.

Otherwise, they’ll likely be looking at a 10th straight season without a playoff appearance in an era when a losing record can get you in.

AP Aaron Nola has never pitched into ninth inning in his career, something that may have to change if Phillies are going to save bullpen and return to playoffs for first time in a decade.