SQUEEZE PLAY
When betting, avoid favorites to score cash
It’s nearly baseball season, and while it doesn’t get the gambling notoriety other sports do, it offers some unique advantages for bettors. The volume of games at a slow time in the sports calendar and publicly available data in particular make it a sport worth betting.
Unlike football and basketball, where the majority of bets are based on the point spread, baseball is a moneyline sport. This means bettors need only to pick who wins the game, not who covers.
When betting the moneyline, you have the option to take either the favorite — the team expected to win — or the underdog. The odds are set based on team strength, pitching matchups and much more.
American odds are entirely based around winning $100, so a bettor would risk $150 to win $100 on the Yankees at -150, and risk $100 to win $130 on the Red Sox +130. Those units can be scaled down or up depending on how much you want to bet.
When you’re betting the favorite, you’re going to gain less money than you wagered if your bet wins, whereas winning an underdog bet will (usually) return more than your wager.
And while it’s more uncommon, you do have the option to bet on the “spread” — though in baseball betting that’s referred to as the run line — and in almost every case is -1.5 runs for the favorite with varying odds.
You also have the option to bet on the over/ under (or total), which is a wager on how many runs will be scored in the game.
Another unique aspect of betting baseball is its long, drawn-out schedule. With so many games played every single day (2,430 regular season games total in a normal season), wiseguys are provided seemingly endless opportunities to maximize their edge.
As for how you can maximize yours, here are some tips to help you turn a profit this MLB season.
AVOID BIG FAVORITES
Big favorites tend to be overvalued by bettors. This means that popular teams like the Yankees, Cubs and Dodgers will always be overpriced because Average Joes will bet on them regardless of whether they’re -150, -180 or -200.
Using The Action Network’s Bet Labs software, we found that regular season favorites at -150 or higher have gone 8546-4932 (63.4%) since 2005. On the surface, that record seems impressive. However, because you’re always laying a huge minus number, you actually end up in the red (-271.22 units). When a favorite wins, your payout is small. But when they lose, you get crushed. Simply put, the juice isn’t worth the squeeze.
TAKE ADVANTAGE OF PLUS-MONEY UNDERDOGS
In order to make money betting football and basketball, bettors must win 52.4% of the time (assuming -110 juice) in order to break even. However, if MLB bettors avoid big favorites and consistently take plus-money underdogs (+120, +150, +170) they can win at a sub-50% clip but still finish the year with positive units won. When dogs lose, you only lose what you risked. But when they win, you enjoy valuable plus-money payouts.
BET AGAINST THE PUBLIC
It’s always a good idea to go contrarian because, more often than not, the public loses. The average bettor bets based on their gut instinct. They generally want to bet favorites, home teams, popular franchises and teams with star players.
They also fall victim of recency bias. If a team looked great last game, they’ll bet it. If a team looked awful, they’ll bet against it. By going contrarian, you can capitalize on public bias and take advantage of artificially inflated numbers. As an added bonus, you place yourself on the side of the books. We all know the house always wins.
FOLLOW REVERSE LINE MOVEMENT
Baseball isn’t just about taking plus-money underdogs and blindly going contrarian. You also want to be on the sharp side of every game (with the professional bettors who have a long track record of success). One of the best ways to locate sharp action is to follow Reverse Line Movement (RLM): when the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages, which you can track at ActionNetwork.com.
For example: say the Cubs open -150 against the Brewers (+130). Chicago is getting 75% of moneyline bets, but you see the Cubs fall from -150 to -135, while the Brewers move from +130 to +115. Why would the books drop the line to give public Cubs bettors a better number? Because sharp action came in on the Brewers. Even though Milwaukee is only getting 25% of bets, the line moved in its favor.
SHOP FOR THE BEST LINE
One of the biggest mistakes new bettors make is betting through only one sportsbook. This is a bad idea because it forces bettors to play whatever number their book is offering. Instead, we suggest opening multiple accounts at several different sportsbooks so you can shop for the best line.
For example, say you want to bet the Kansas City Royals. DraftKings is posting Royals +130, but BetMGM is posting +135. By having access to more than one book, you just got an additional 5 cents for free. It may not seem like a big deal, but in the long run it can make a world of difference, leading to increased payouts and diminished losses.
EMBRACE VOLUME BETTING
One of the biggest keys to being a successful long-term bettor is remaining disciplined and limiting your plays to the most valuable games of the day. However, baseball is one of the few sports where volume betting leads to increased profits.
If you have a betting system that has a ROI of 2%, it’s reasonable to expect that you will make around 486 bets on MLB and 51 bets on the NFL if you bet 20% of that league’s games.
Even though the ROI’s are exactly the same, the sheer volume of baseball wagering leads to much higher units won (a 2% ROI would result in a profit of +9.72 units in MLB while a 2% ROI would result in just +1.02 units won in NFL).
An MLB bettor putting $500 on every play ($500 x 9.72 units) would end the year with a profit of $4,860, Meanwhile, a $500 NFL bettor with the same 2% ROI would profit just $510 ($500 x 1.02 units). Simply put, the sheer volume of baseball betting leads to a profit 9.5 times greater than football betting.
MANAGE YOUR BANKROLL, AVOID PARLAYS & TEASERS
Money management is one of the most critical factors to long-term success. A good strategy is to employ a flat-betting approach: every play is the same, always risk one unit (1u) and between 1% to 5% of your bankroll per play. There will always be ups and downs, but if you remain disciplined in your bankroll management, it will keep you from losing big when you have a rough stretch but also set you up for a positive ROI over the long haul.
You should also avoid parlays and teasers. Public bettors get seduced by the massive payouts and love the idea of turning $5 into $100. However, the truth is that the books make a killing off parlays and teasers because they can get away with offering especially unfair odds disguised by those big payouts.
Stick to individual game bets. It’s hard enough to win one wager. If you layer on more games to a bet, all you’re doing is adding risk and limiting your chances of winning.