Moves to make before trade deadline
Here are some options that could lift up Team .500
The sting from the previous night’s seven-run train wreck of a ninth inning had barely subsided when Dave Dombrowski returned a call at lunchtime on May 6. On the other end, a reporter asked the Phillies president of baseball operations for his impression of the team one month into the season.
“I don’t usually make overall assessments after 25 games. I think that’s too quick,” Dombrowski said then. “I think you just get a pulse of what’s taken place and continue, and usually you get to about the quarter-of-the-season mark to really kind of sit down and talk to individuals and come up with a quick summary.”
Fair enough. But the quarter pole arrives this weekend, and here’s the thing about the Phillies: Nothing has changed. Not since May 6, not since last year, not since even before Dombrowski took charge 17 months ago.
OK, so some of the names in the lineup are new. Kyle Schwarber is here now; so is Nick Castellanos. And the payroll is larger. It’s projected to exceed the $230 million luxury-tax threshold, a line that few believed the Phillies would ever cross.
But the bottom line is the same. For all of their star power, from National League MVP Bryce Harper to Cy Young runner-up Zack Wheeler, the Phillies are magnetically drawn to the .500 mark. Entering the weekend, they were within one game of .500 — plus, minus, or even — after 15 of 38 games. They were in that range 70 times last year. Under Joe Girardi, they’ve been at .500, one game above, or one below 43% of the time (112 of 260 games).
It’s a maddening cycle. Maybe it would have been avoided if the previous front-office regime hadn’t mistimed the Phillies’ shift from rebuilding to contending. Maybe not. But now, bogged down by the NL’s longest active postseason drought, Dombrowski has little choice but to keep pushing, especially with an extra team added to the playoff field.
All of this is to say that Team .500’s train would need to careen off the tracks in a big way over the next two months for Dombrowski to do anything other than add to the roster at the Aug. 2 trade deadline. Last year, the team with the sixth-best record in the NL had 83 wins. Through Thursday, based on the Phillies’ positive run differential (+15), Fangraphs’ projection model had them with 84.3 wins and a 41.3% chance of making the playoffs.
Want to bet Dealer Dave takes those odds and tries to improve on them?
The trade market doesn’t usually take shape until June or even early July, in part because even the unabashed sellers would rather their fan bases not see them hoisting a white flag on Memorial Day. But with five teams on pace for 100 losses (Reds, Nationals, Tigers, Royals, Orioles) and another angling for a potential move (Athletics), it’s never premature to examine how the Phillies can strengthen three of their weakest areas.
Center field/ leadoff hitter
If last year’s trade deadline turned into one of the craziest ever, it was because the Cubs and Nationals decided in July to break up the cores of recent World Series championship teams. That’s how Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Javier Báez, Max Scherzer, Trea Turner and Schwarber all wound up in deadline deals.
Will the Red Sox follow suit this year?
There’s too much time and talent to write off Boston already. But the Sox entered the weekend on a 93-loss pace in a division with the Blue Jays, Rays and surging Yankees. They also have a long list of potential free agents after the season, including shortstop Xander Bogaerts, designated hitter J.D. Martinez, and starting pitcher Nathan Eovaldi.
Here’s another who would suit the Phillies: Kiké Hernández.
Chase Utley’s one-time protégé with the Dodgers, Hernández is off to a dreadful start. But he batted .250/.337/.449 with 35 doubles and 20 homers last season and was spectacular in the playoffs. He’s a solid center fielder and a more natural leadoff hitter than any the Phillies have had since Andrew McCutchen blew out his knee two months into the 2019 season.
If the Phillies don’t slug more consistently in a league-wide environment where the baseball isn’t traveling as far as usual, they don’t stand much chance. But a steady presence atop the batting order would lengthen the lineup and put Schwarber and Rhys Hoskins back in typical run-producing spots.
The Phillies will be as protective as possible of shortstop Bryson Stott, touted pitchers Mick Abel and Andrew Painter, and possibly center-field prospect Johan Rojas. But with Hernández’s contract expiring after the season, it seems doubtful the Red Sox would fetch a premium prospect for him unless they package him in a larger trade.
That’s if they wind up selling at all.
Bullpen
You know you have an evergreen problem when even the potential solutions don’t change.
As usual, the Phillies can use help in the bullpen. Entering the weekend, they had the fourth-highest reliever ERA in the majors (4.24), better than only the non-contending Diamondbacks, Reds, and Rockies. Last year, they finished with a 4.60 bullpen ERA and tied for the major-league lead with 34 blown saves. In 2020, they had a historically bad 7.06 ERA.
David Robertson (Cubs) and Ian Kennedy (Diamondbacks) are among the more experienced relievers who may be available once the market takes shape. But the Phillies went there in 2019 and 2021, respectively. It’s doubtful they would do it again. They were interested in Mychal Givens early in the offseason. Perhaps they would assume what remains of his $5 million salary whenever the Cubs are ready to offload it.
As upstart closers with the ability to pitch multiple innings, Pittsburgh’s David Bednar and Baltimore’s Jorge López will be two of the trendier names on the market. But both are inexpensive and controllable beyond this year, so their non-contending teams — the Pirates, in particular, for Bednar, a Pittsburgh native who isn’t eligible for salary arbitration until after 2023 — will aim for a good prospect return.
One name to monitor: Lou Trivino. Command problems and COVID19 got the Montgomery County native and Slippery Rock product booted as Oakland’s closer last month. But he has pitched better recently in lower-leverage situations. If the A’s can get him back to protecting late leads, he could be a trade candidate.
It’s both preferable and possible that the Phillies get their bullpen help internally.
Connor Brogdon’s fastball velocity has crept back into the mid-90s, and he got two swings and misses on his changeup in the ninth inning Thursday. And the next time starter-turned-reliever Francisco Morales gets called up to the majors, the Phillies are hoping he will be ready to stick.
Back of the rotation
Entering the weekend, Phillies starters had a 3.02 ERA since the third turn through the rotation — or once Wheeler and Ranger Suárez got their sea legs after barely pitching in spring training.
Starting pitching is a strength, although depth remains a concern behind Aaron Nola, Zach Eflin, Wheeler, Kyle Gibson, and Suárez. It’s also unclear how many innings Suárez will be able to provide. He worked a career-high 106 last year. Is 130 innings a realistic number? More?
Dombrowski traded for Gibson at the deadline last year after a swap for lefthander Tyler Anderson fell apart. He dealt for Drew Pomeranz, Eovaldi, and Andrew Cashner in four deadlines with the Red Sox. Adding a starter in midseason is almost a reflex for him.
Without moving Abel, Painter, or Stott, the Phillies lack the prospect capital to acquire Cincinnati’s Luis Castillo or Oakland’s Frankie Montas. But it wouldn’t be surprising to see Dombrowski chase a rent-a-starter. Lefties José Quintana (Pirates) and Wade Miley (Cubs) would fit the description.