Players who could make (or break) your fantasy team
Icould wax poetic about how wonderful it is to have players like Ronald Acuna Jr. or Spencer Strider on your fantasy baseball team — man, the Braves are good — but then I might as well tell you Taylor Swift is popular, stepping on a LEGO is the absolute worst or the internet is dark and full of terrors.
All of that information is obvious and won’t help you earn bragging rights, much less win a fantasy baseball championship.
The foundation of great preparation for every season is determining the players you can draft later and yet still reap a solid value (sleepers) and/or the players you shouldn’t draft at all (busts).
Being able to discern the two will make all the difference in establishing a championship DNA for your roster.
Even if you’ve already drafted, add the sleepers to your watch-list as potential trade targets or waiver wire pickups in case a league-mate decides to pull the plug too soon on a draft pick.
Obviously, avoid the busts and if you drafted one, consider yourself warned:
Here are my sleepers and busts for the 2024 fantasy baseball season:
Sleepers Vladimir Guerrero Jr., 1B, Blue Jays:
Guerrero suffered an uncharacteristically long slump last summer and ended the year with a disappointing (for him) 26 home runs, 94 RBIs and a .264 average. The good news is underlining metrics like his walk-rate and strikeout-rate continued to get better, and his .277 BABIP was the lowest of his career, meaning there’s positive regression on its way. Remember, he’s only going to be 25 this year, and he’s just three years removed from leading the majors in homers (48), runs (123) and total bases (363) as a 22-year-old. It’s likely you’re drafting a first-round value in the third round, which is always a great way to begin your draft. Average Draft Position according to FantasyPros: 27
Ryan Pepiot, SP, Rays: Tampa Bay targeted Pepiot in the Tyler Glasnow trade with the Dodgers. I’m not sure there’s a team who is more intentional when acquiring players, so that’s reason enough
to buy-in. Pepiot improved his control and command significantly last season, has plus stuff and will now be a mid-rotation starter for a team that is the standard for developing pitchers. ADP: 194
Brandon Pfaadt, SP, Diamondbacks:
Pfaadt is an ascending young pitcher who struggled early in his rookie season, but steadily improved as the year went along, including five solid starts in the playoffs. He tossed 22 innings with a 3.27 ERA and struck out 30% of the batters he faced against some of the best lineups the game has to offer. This is a great price point to see if he’s capable of picking up where he
left off. ADP: 211
Jarred Kelenic, OF, Braves: The sixth overall pick in the 2018 draft already proved capable of producing double-digit homers and steals in Seattle. Now he joins a better lineup and moves to a more hitterfriendly park in Atlanta, increasing his run-scoring upside regardless of where he hits. The Braves had nine different players register at least 64 runs scored in 2023. ADP: 234
Mickey Moniak, OF, Angels: The former first overall pick was buried in the Phillies’ farm system before getting traded to Los Angeles, where he showed signs of life last season. He struggled mightily against lefties, which could end up locking him into a platoon. If he can improve against southpaws ... ADP: 424
Busts
Elly De La Cruz, SS, Reds: Someone in your league will almost certainly take De La Cruz higher than he’s going on average. The range of outcomes are infinite. He has 40⁄40 potential, but he could also get sent down to the minors in a few months. His full-season pace as a rookie was 21 home runs, 73 RBIs, 111 runs and 58 steals, but he hit .191 with a 36% strikeout rate in the second half. What’s your risk tolerance? ADP: 34
Randy Arozarena, OF, Rays: I’m a fan of Arozarena. He’s been durable and consistent, producing between 20 and 23 home runs, stealing between 20 and 32 bases, and hitting between .254 and .274 each of the last three seasons. Those are solid numbers, but he just turned 29, which means it’s possible we’ve seen his peak. The first five or six rounds, I’m primarily focused on great players who potentially haven’t had their career year yet. ADP: 43