Poll: Party shapes views on voting
Asked in February about what they saw as the greatest security threats during this year’s presidential election, there was little consensus among Pennsylvania voters.
In that early survey from Muhlenberg College and The Morning Call, nearly equal shares of respondents were concerned about voter fraud, voting machines malfunctioning, and suppression of individual voters.
In the months that followed, the greatest challenge to the primary elections was something else entirely: a global pandemic that postponed balloting and increased the workload for county elections staff already carrying out a slew of state voting changes.
By August, when the Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion surveyed state voters again on election security, concerns about voter fraud rose to 39%, up from 25% in February. The number of those worried about individuals being suppressed from voting also increased, at 30% in August, compared to 21% in February.
Those numbers increased as President Donald Trump floated theories about widespread election fraud that have not been backed up by evidence.
In a memocomparing data across the two surveys, Chris Borick, director of Muhlenberg’s polling institute, wrote that partisanship increasingly has influenced views on election security.
In both surveys, Democrats most
commonly said suppression of voters was the biggest threat to election security and legitimacy, with the percentage identifying that option rising from 29% to 49% over the six-month period. AmongRepublicans, voter fraud was identified most commonly, nearly doubling from 36% in February to 68% in August.
Voters in both parties grew less concerned about voter machines malfunctioning across the two surveys. While Northampton County experi
enced significant issues with new touch-screen machines it rolled out last November, those logistics went more smoothly during the primary.
Concerns about foreign interference remained consistent, with 19% of Democrats and 11% of Republicans saying in August that it was their top concern. Russia interfered in the 2016 election, seeking to boost Trump’s electoral prospects and to damage Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton’s campaign, according to U.S. intelligence analysis. And the director of the FBI warned a U.S. House panel this week that there are “very
active” efforts by Russia to influence this year’s election.
There’s also a sharp partisan divide over the security of mail voting, as Trump and other Republicans have repeatedly raised questions about that balloting option.
Three in 4 Pennsylvania Republicans agree that substantial mail voting in the state would increase the likelihood of fraud, and 4% strongly disagree with that claim. Democrats hold the opposite view, with 7 in 10 either “somewhat” or “strongly” disagreeing that more mail voting will boost the risk of fraud, and 11% strongly agreeing.
Independents are divided, with 48% agreeing and 41% disagreeing that significant mail voting elevates the chances of election fraud.
Amid the concerns, however, a majority of respondents — 54% in February and 55% in August — said they believed the state is prepared for the upcoming election. Only about 1 in 5 voters in either poll said state officials are unprepared to manage the election.