Phillies, Yankees, Mets should all pass on spending $200M for catcher Realmuto
When it comes to Major League Baseball free-agency sticker prices, nothing should surprise us anymore. Once upon a time, $500M was attached to Bryce Harper’s name. Jake Arrieta and $200M were used in the same sentence. It happens. Agents float numbers, but it doesn’t often mean reality when a deal gets done.
Yet it was impossible not to be taken aback by a report by suggesting Phillies catcher J.T. Realmuto is “eyeing” a deal in the $200M range this offseason. With the Phillies, Mets and Yankees all expected to chase the best catcher in baseball, it’s worth exploring why that price would be a bad buy.
Revenues are dropping
This is a reality no team can escape. The Yankees have lost over $400M in 2020. The Mets have lost over $200M (but the specter of a new owner might render that somewhat irrelevant) and the Phillies lost $186M (ironically right around what an eight-year deal for Realmuto would cost) due to the coronavirus pandemic.
Is any of this an excuse not to field a good team? Obviously not. But if you don’t think revenue losses will have an impact on team salary, you’re living under a rock. The higher percentage of the pie one player takes up, the harder it is to build a sustainable winner.
Catchers rarely age well
In the last 30 years, only six catchers have posted OPS marks over .800 while catching 80% of the games they appeared in (so basically not a half DH/half catcher scenario) from ages 30-35. To expect Realmuto to hit like he has over the last three seasons (.825 OPS) while remaining an everyday catcher through his mid 30s isn’t just illogical; it’s almost totally unrealistic.
Realmuto could (and should) remain productive for the next three-to-four years, even while catching. But after that? Historically, catchers fall off the cliff. Here’s a full list of catchers worth just 5.0 WAR (so an average of 2.5 per season) during their age 34-35 seasons over the last 30 years of baseball: Jorge Posada, Lance Parrish, Robinson Chirinos and Gregg Zaun. That’s it. Four catchers in 30 years have been good starters in the ages that would represent the backend of a mega deal.
Back-to-back season-ending physical issues
Don’t discount this. Realmuto was on the shelf at the end of the 2019 season due to a knee issue that required surgery. In 2020, it was a hip issue that forced him out of the lineup or pushed to first base and designated hitter just to keep his bat in there. Back-to-back physical issues for a catcher that likes to catch as many games as possible feels like a major red flag.
Good, not great offensive player
When we look at Realmuto through the prism of other catchers, he stands out. Realmuto finished tied for first in HR (11), 11th in wRC+ (125), and ninth in wOBA (.361) in 2020. But don’t discount how much time Realmuto may have to spend at first base, DHor maybe even left field during his next deal. That changes the equation with his bat, and just how prolific it is.
Realmuto posted an .840 OPS in 2020. That was tied for 38th in baseball and behind names like Kole Calhoun, A.J. Pollock and Chris Taylor. The bat is elite at catcher. It’s not if he’s not catching as much as he has in recent years.
Star catchers aren’t imperative to winning big
Are we sure a star catcher truly correlates to winning big? None of the final four teams in MLB’s postseason (Dodgers: Will Smith, Braves: Travis d’Arnaud, Rays: Mike Zunino; Astros: Martin Maldonado) have a superstar behind the dish. None paid massive money for their backstop. The 2019 World Series was won with a Kurt Suzuki-Yan Gomes platoon. The 2018 Red Sox won108 games a title despite bottom-of-the-league production from Sandy Leon and Christian Vazquez.
Yes, Yadier Molina has been a big winner. The same can be said for Buster Posey. But of their combined five World Series rings, zero came after either turned 30. It’s great to have a great young catcher. It’s not as great to have an aging, declining and expensive one.
Other options exist
It’s not Realmuto or bust for the Phillies Yankees oe Mets.
James McCannis a quality free agent. The Giants could be willing to listen to deals for Posey or perhaps move on from former No. 2 overall pick Joey Bart. The Dodgers have a surplus of young catching behind breakout star Will Smith.
The Yankees seem ready to move on from Gary Sanchez. The Mets need stability at the position, and seem poised to make a big splash. The Phillies are feeling pressure from their biggest star (Harper) and fan base to get a deal done. But anything close to $200Mfor Realmuto is a bad deal waiting to happen.