Holiday travel drop expected

Amid outbreaks, restrictions, AAA reduces estimates

Fewer Americans will travel over the river or through the wood this Thanksgiving, as millions stay home rather than risk exposing grandmother to COVID-19.

AAA Travel was prepared to estimate that approximately 50 million Americans would travel 50 miles or more for Thanksgiving based on October traffic data. That would have been a 10% drop from Thanksgiving 2019. However, with outbreaks surging across the country, the travel advisory group reported last week that it expects figures to be even lower this holiday. The last time AAA estimated fewer than 50 million travelers for Thanksgiving was in 2016.

New restrictions announced since AAA released its initial estimate almost guarantee travel will drop in Southeast Pennsylvania. Philadelphia

barred indoor social gatherings of any kind, and Pennsylvania Health Secretary Dr. Rachel Levine issued an order Tuesday saying travelers must be tested within 72 hours before entering Pennsylvania or quarantine for 14 days.

Meanwhile, New Jersey capped get-togethers at no more than 10 people. The CDC discouraged gatherings with people outside a household.

Travel was already unattractive for many people before these crackdowns. Commercial flight traffic has sharply dropped compared with a year ago, and most cruise ships have been stuck in port since the spring. As a result, people who choose to travel will opt for road trips more than usual, AAA projected.

While about 89% of people traveled by car in 2019, the figure is expected to climb to 94.4% this year, according to AAA. By comparison, the percentage of people expected to catch a flight will fall from 8.1% last year to 4.7%. The share of people taking cruises, trains or buses will be less than 1% compared with 2.6% in 2019, AAA projected.

Despite fewer people than usual clogging the roads, drivers still should plan ahead. The days before Thanksgiving are traditionally the busiest travel days of the year, so even a down year will see heavy congestion on major highways, according to INRIX, a data firm that provides real-time traffic information to governments across the globe.

“We expect more holiday drivers than we had over the last few holidays during COVID-19,” INRIX analyst Bob Pishue said. “Drivers should plan alternate routes and departure times to avoid traffic jams.”

Tom JeBran, president of Trans-Bridge Lines, said Thanksgiving week is typically one of the bus company’s best, but it lowered its expectations. Levine’s orders, while not being strictly enforced, persuaded many would-be travelers to stay home, he said. As much as people want to see their loved ones, they also want to keep them safe.

This week “would have been our heaviest week. We’re not going to see that,” JeBran said. “I’m struggling with my own family on what to do.”

The Pennsylvania Turnpike Commission estimated 2.8 million people will use the nation’s oldest modern highway between Tuesday and Nov. 29, a 20% decrease over the same period last year. Drivers who haven’t used the turnpike in recent months may notice some changes. In a bid to slow the transfer of the virus, the turnpike adopted a cashless system. Instead of interacting with a toll collector, drivers can either pay with E-ZPass or will have a bill mailed to them.

The good news is that with flagging demand, gas prices will be lower than a year ago. Gas Buddy, a travel site that focuses on fuel prices, recorded that a gallon of gas is averaging about $2.43 in the Allentown area. That’s about 25 cents less per gallon than it was a year ago.