State’s COVID-19 cases may be plateauing

Data from the state Health Department showed 4,045 additional coronavirus cases Monday, Martin Luther King Jr. Day.

The total number of cases for Sunday and Monday was 10,068. The 7-day moving average of newly reported cases was 6,527 Monday, down 25% from 8,722 a week ago. The moving average has been on the decline for four consecutive days, indicating a possible plateau after a two-week increase.

To date, there have been 771,845 infections statewide since the start of the pandemic.

Monday’s statistics mark the lowest daily additional cases since Jan. 4. Both case and death numbers tend to be lower on weekends, when fewer labs and coroners’ offices make reports.

A look at the population-adjusted rates in each county shows a wide disparity in the virus’s impact across the state. Forest County’s seven-day moving average of new cases is 607 per 100,000 people per day, almost 12 times the statewide rate of 51. Forest is home to a large state prison, the population of which accounts for almost a third of the county’s total population.

The next highest case rate is in Elk County, Forest’s neighbor to the east, with a seven-day rate of 130 daily cases per 100,000 population. By contrast, the same measure is 67 in Lehigh, 65 in Northampton and 35 in Philadelphia.

Statistics from the Corrections Department website show that 165 inmates — more than 7% of the current 2,274 inmate population — and 10 staff members at Forest State Prison are infected. Fewer than half the inmates have been tested.

The state reported 80 deaths Monday, compared with 122 the day before. That brings the total to 19,390 COVID-related deaths in Pennsylvania.

As of midday Monday, 4,582 people were hospitalized, compared with 4,614 on Sunday. Of those, 583 patients were on ventilators, and 950 were in intensive care units. Hospitalization and intensive care numbers have been slowly declining over the last four weeks.

The Lehigh Valley had 208 new cases (103 in Lehigh County, 105 in Northampton County), compared with 408 the day before. That brings the total to 46,257. It also saw five deaths (four in Lehigh County and one in Northampton County), compared with seven the day before. That brings the Valley’s toll to 1,121.