Speculation addiction
Who ever dreamed that Roblox and Fortnite would be the “gateway drugs” to stock speculation? But it’s hardly a surprise that a generation that grew up on video games — honing their quick decision-making skills and even paying real money to purchase “extras” — would suddenly turn to “playing” in the stock market.
No amount of rational thought or pleas for sensible perspective will deter this new fascination. Or shall we call it an addiction? And just as for those addicted to drugs, alcohol and gambling, there should be a “speculation anon” group giving support to those who have to deal with the very real financial consequences of this new mania.
It’s not the idea of speculation that’s alarming. In fact, speculation plays an integral part in the financial marketplace. Speculators assume risk, provide liquidity and frequently oppose the “common wisdom” successfully.
But there’s a big difference between intelligent speculation and outright gambling. That difference is the probability of loss.
This column was triggered by an email I received this week. “My grandson wants to take out all his Apple stock and put it into Robinhood. We do not agree. What do you think?” That’s all the information they gave.
I never give specific stock advice, so I responded with a measured suggestion that they might want to give him a bit more money and designate it for speculation in other stocks, while he maintains his Apple position. I assumed the grandson was young and caught up in the headlines of the Robinhood mania.
A few hours later, I received another email headlined, “I am the grandson!” Obviously my advice had been speedily passed on. The grandson gave me more background.
“Currently I have 280 shares of Apple that I’ve done well on. I understand that the market is getting a bit more volatile
[sic] and I’m comfortable with my returns so far. I’m thinking about selling off my shares (which are currently in Robinhood) until the market drops. Then I’ll rebuy at a lower price. Apple has already released their flagship products, and I believe Apple only has so much upside in the current market. I’ve been holding this Apple stock for 10+ years.”
The first thing I know about giving advice is that people who have made up their mind are not often willing to change. So I responded carefully.
My first point was to remind him that his trading strategy requires being right three times: when to get out, when to get back in again, and then when to sell once more. The probabilities of him making all three correct timing choices pale in comparison to simply enjoying this long-term winning position.
Second, I reminded him that he would owe capital gains taxes when he sells. So at least 20% of his gain (and perhaps more if the tax law changes) would go to the government.
Thus, he would have less money to trade with, and each trade would face its own set of tax consequences.
And third, I knew he would be tempted to get into whatever is making headlines. Whether it would be a crowd-generated short squeeze like GameStop or a new “fad” like cannabis stocks, all of those plays are generated by a kernel of attractive truth. And they end with the expensive bursting of a bubble fueled by greed.
Would he be one of the smart or lucky winners in this game? The odds are not favorable.
Instead, I suggested we have a contest. He would sell half of his Apple stock, paying the taxes out of his proceeds. Then go ahead and trade for a year. I would take the side of his remaining Apple position. Let’s see what happens a year from now.
But I’m sorry, Grandma, everyone must learn the big lessons the hard way. It’s an old Savage Truth: The lessons that cost the most teach the most. I doubt he will take your advice or mine. But we will both be able to say “I told you so.” And that’s The Savage Truth.
Sean Kinney got the usual prematch instructions from Nazareth coaches before his 285-pound final at Sunday’s District 11 Class 3A championships: Wrestle your match and find a way to win.
But there was a caveat.
“‘Just have in the back of your head that if you get six [points, a pin], we win the team title,’ “the freshman recalled. “I knew what that meant right away, to go get six.”
Kinney delivered, with a pin over Stroudsburg’s Sebastian Khamis in 2 minutes, 52 seconds. It gave Nazareth the team title with 231.5 points, one more than Bethlehem Catholic.
The Blue Eagles and Golden Hawks each advanced 10 to the Northeast Regional tournament Saturday at Charles Chrin Community Center in Palmer Township.
The top three in all 13 weight classes qualify for regionals against Districts 2 and 12.
Drew Clearie (189) and Chase Levey (215) started the run of three pins in the last three district finals for Nazareth. Clearie turned a third-period reversal into a fall over Easton’s Isaiah Reinert. Levey, who missed last season with a shoulder injury, decked Allen’s Manuel Rodriguez in 1:58.
That set the stage for Kinney, who had not wrestled a varsity match before this weekend’s tournament. He finished off an unlikely team title for a group loaded with inexperienced wrestlers with his third pin in four matches.
“Kinney, I’ve never seen him wrestle until this weekend,” said Blue Eagles coach Dave Crowell, who was named District 11’s 3A coach of the year. “In a way, it was not as stressful for me because you don’t really have these high expectations I was excited to see how our guys would wrestle. The wins and losses would be what they are, but we really wrestled better than what I thought.”
It was a collective effort to put Clearie, Levey and Kinney in position to bring the team trophy to Nazareth.
Sophomore Noah Okamoto, who last year was in the district JV tournament and hadn’t wrestled a varsity match until Saturday, took second at 152.
Junior Ryan Fairchild had less than 15 varsity matches before this season, but took third at 160.
Sophomore Dominic Wheatley had less experience than Fairchild, but was second at 132.
Sophomore Charlie Bunting, who was hurt and had to exit last year’s district tournament, beat Bethlehem Catholic’s Cael McIntyre for the third time in two years. This time it was 2-1 on a third-period penalty point.
Jake Doone (third at 120), Vinny Hebel (third at 138) and Sonny Sasso (second at 172) were the other Blue Eagles medalists.
Sasso won the district pinner award with three in a total of 4 minutes, 53 seconds.
Northampton senior Jagger Condomitti won his second district title in a row and captured his second consecutive outstanding wrestler award after registering three pins and a technical fall at 160.
Bethlehem Catholic had five district champions. Dante Frinzi won his first gold medal with a 6-4 sudden-victory decision over Liberty’s Javien DeLeon.
Sophomore Tyler Kasak won his second district title in a row with a technical fall over Pottsville freshman Parrish McFarland at 126.
Senior Matt Mayer won his second crown — the first came as a freshman — with an 8-4 win over Wheatley at 132.
Sophomore Andrew Harmon finished off Northampton’s C.J. Fritz in 4:47 at 138 for his first title. And senior Evan Gleason dominated the 152-pound bracket with a technical fall and three pins to take home his second district gold.
“After almost three years of a dry spell in the district finals,” Mayer said, “I’m just thankful that me and the guys were able to come out here after a year full of animosity and hardship due to the pandemic. My win felt really great but to see all the guys out there being able to compete meant the world to me, as well.”
Charlies Pavis (third at 106), Trey Miletics (third at 145), Landon Muth (second at 160) and Anthony DeRosa (third at 189) were the other Golden Hawks to qualify for regionals.
Northampton’s Carson Wagner pinned Stroudsburg’s Josh Jasionowicz in the final at 106, a bracket loaded with statelevel competitors.
Dagen Condomitti, Jagger’s younger brother, won his first district title at 145 for the Konkrete Kids, who were third in the team standings with 161 points.
Freshman Austin Noe (third at 113) and senior Patrick Snoke (third at 126) also advanced to regionals for Northampton.
Easton’s Dom Falcone won his second district title with a 5-2 decision over Sasso at 172. The Army-bound senior scored a takedown with 49 seconds left in the first period then fought off several Sasso scoring attempts before getting another with two ticks left.
“Just stuck to my game plan, did not switch anything up,” Falcone said. “Obviously, I respect him as a wrestler. [Sasso] is like three times the length of me, so it was real important with positioning.”