GOREN ON BRIDGE

The likelihood that six missing cards will split 3-3 or 4-2 or that five missing cards will split 3-2 or 4-1 are well known percentages. Experts, or nonexperts who happen to know these numbers, will usually base their play on these percentages. Sometimes, however, an expert will throw the percentages out and play for the lie of the cards that is required for him to be successful.

South won the opening heart lead with the ace and he did not like his chances. Even if the missing trumps split 3-2, he would still need four club tricks to make his contract. He started by cashing the ace and king of spades. Had the spades split 3-2 he would have drawn the last trump and tried to bring home the club suit. The bad split in trumps gave him an extra loser so he started on clubs right away.

South cashed the ace and queen of clubs and led his last club toward the dummy. He realized that a 3-3 club split would spell certain defeat. He could discard a loser on the fourth club, but West would be able to ruff and cash three red-suit tricks for down one. South needed a 4-2 club split so he played dummy’s 10 of clubs. Success! He discarded a heart on the fourth club as West followed suit. South then ruffed a heart, crossed to dummy with the queen of spades, and ruffed another heart. He had taken the first 10 tricks and conceded the last three to the defense. Well played!

ACROSS

1 Carney or Linkletter

4 Actor Wheaton

7 “One __ at a Time”

10 Brag

11 Grow older

12 Arden of “Our Miss Brooks”

13 __ nothing; complete success or

complete failure

15 Billy __ Williams

16 Digital camera batteries, usually 17 Host of “The Situation Room” 20 “Lorenzo’s __”; movie for Susan

Sarandon and Nick Nolte

21 Part of speech: abbr.

22 Quartet

27 “My Three __”

30 Mary __; “Gilligan’s Island” role 31 Sweet potato

32 “The Cat in the __”

33 Actor Foxx

35 Turns down, as an invitation 38 Long, long time

40 “Please Don’t __ the Daisies” 41 Actress on “Cheers” 47 Mary-Kate, to Ashley 49 DVD player’s forerunner 50 Ross or Rigg

51 “__ Ventura: Pet Detective”;

movie for Jim Carrey 52 Historical period

53 “Larry __ Live”

54 Actress Leoni

55 Alejandro of “The Flying Nun” 56 Junior naval rank: abbr.

DOWN

1 Woody Guthrie’s son

2 “__ Out the Barrel”; WWII song 3 “__ the Money”; Matthew

McConaughey/Al Pacino movie 4 Usually dry streambed

5 “By the Time __ to Phoenix” 6 Talk show hostess __ Gibbons 7 Sitcom for Judd Hirsch

8 Actress __ Gardner

9 “__, Dear”

10 Crow’s cry

14 Baseball statistics, for short 18 Actor __ Nolan

19 McMahon and Begley

22 “The __ Side”; Gary Larson strip 23 “__ Tree Hill”

24 “The __ World of Jacques

Cousteau”

25 Actress West

26 Pat Sajak or Drew Carey 28 Scottish negative

29 Halo wearers: abbr.

34 Comment from Homer Simpson 36 Cooking fat

37 Tell __ it is; speak frankly 39 “Tomorrow __ Dies”; 007 movie 42 Square land measure

43 Advice from a minister

44 “The __ Event”; Streisand movie 45 Blyth and Sothern

46 Old horse

47 Cartoon morning: abbr.

48 “__ Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs”