Signs of hope seen by Lehigh Valley chamber
Speakers at annual event forecast a healthy turnaround for economy
The Greater Lehigh Valley Chamber of Commerce’s Economic Forecast, usually filled with exclamations and exclamation points, seemed understandably subdued this year.
Perhaps it was a sobering reminder of what the past year has felt like, a health pandemic that has seen nearly 1,400 deaths in the Valley alone since March, and 500,000 in the U.S.
A widespread virus can do that, even to the normally vibrant business-boosting group.
“You add physical health misery to a miserable economic environment, and that’s a real challenge for keeping people healthy,” Dr. Brian Nester, CEO and president of Lehigh Valley Health Network, said Tuesday during the event, which was held virtually because of the coronavirus.
During an interview with chamber President and CEO Tony Iannelli, Nester said LVHN has seen an estimated 39,000 coronavirus cases and 7,000 patients with the virus at its hospital.
“It’s a health catastrophe, there’s no doubt about it,” he said.
But Nester and other speakers pointed to signs of optimism during the hourlong event. For Nester, vaccinations are key.
“The solution to physical and economic health is vaccinate people as fast as possible,” he said. “Get the herd immunity, so people can get back into the herd community.”
The Valley’s economy has improved amid the pandemic in areas such as home sales, warehousing and niche businesses, speakers said. Other areas, notably leisure and hospitality, have continued to struggle. Unemployment, which climbed to 16.5% during April and May, fell nearly 10 percentage points in the Valley by December, the most recent month available. Unemployment in the four county metropolitan area was at 7.1%.
“Hopefully, we are climbing over the mountain of COVID19 and coming down the other side completely sanitized,” said Nancy Dischinat, executive director of Lehigh Valley Workforce Board.
Perhaps an alarming sign: Dischinat said workers between 25 and 44 years old make up the largest age group collecting unemployment compensation benefits.
But employers have available jobs, she said, and the future looks bright as well. Valley employment is projected to grow by 7.5% in the next decade, she said, higher than the state’s 5% predicted growth.
“The workforce outlook is projected to be good; it’s a good story,” Dischinat said, cautioning that the pandemic could change things.
Guest speaker Jay Bryson, who is Wells Fargo’s chief economist, said that on the national front, the economy should rebound, based in part on expected growth in consumer spending as inflation remains moderate.
Consumers, he said are sitting on an estimated $1.5 trillion in excess spending power — money saved from less overall spending or from government relief programs last year. Congress and the Biden administration (which seeks an additional $1.9 trillion coronavirus relief package) are pursuing another round of stimulus support.
“We think growth in the economy is going to be very strong,” Bryson said, hedging his forecast on how the U.S. deals with COVID-19.
“Fortunately, cases have come down,” he said, “but it’s premature to say we’ve come out of the woods.”
Other speakers included Andrew Desiderio, shareholder with accounting firm Concannon Miller, on tax insights for the year, and Morning Call Editor Mike Miorelli, who presented the media company’s annual business news in review.
The Lehigh Valley chamber bills itself as the largest regional chamber in Pennsylvania and New Jersey, and in the top 10 nationally — the rank excludes state business groups — with 5,000 business members who employ more than 220,000 people. Its reach extends beyond the Valley into the Poconos and Warren County, New Jersey.