Can the Phillies make the playoffs?
Here are 5 things that must work out for a big season
In an offseason where player movement crept along at a glacial pace, the Phillies spent more money on free agents than all but one MLB team.
The expenditure won’t guarantee a playoff berth.
The Phillies also reside in the National League East, the one division where every team is trying to win baseball games (look at the NL Central if that sounds obvious).
What will it take for them to nab a postseason slot while battling the Braves, Nationals, Mets and Marlins?
Several of the five items below breaking their way is a must. The season begins 3:05 p.m. Thursday at Citizens Bank Park against Atlanta.
An average bullpen
The Phillies’ 2020 bullpen was historically bad. The carnage included a 7.06 ERA and a .315 opponent’s batting average.
Several of the arms that contributed to that disaster have been jettisoned. The Phillies also added a new closer in Archie Bradley and a hard-throwing lefty in Jose Alvarado.
The bullpen turnover and usual volatility of relievers should keep the Phillies from repeating their relief mess from 2020. In a division where everyone is trying to compete, however, the Phillies need their bullpen to go from awful to average.
Bryce Harper, MVP candidate
MLB Network released its list of the Top 100 players in baseball last month. The Braves, Nationals and Mets each had one player ranked in the Top 5.
The Phillies had no one ranked higher than Harper, who came in at No. 22.
While he has enjoyed two solid seasons since signing his 13-year, $330 million megadeal with the Phils, he hasn’t come close to his MVP numbers of 2015.
Harper is entering his age-28 season — typically part of a player’s career peak. It’s time for him to provide a dominant presence in the Phillies’ lineup.
Improved infield defense
Whether measured by fickle defensive metrics or the eye test, the 2020 Phillies fared poorly at turning batted balls into outs. What did they do to address their defensive shortcomings in the infield? Nothing in terms of personnel.
The Phillies’ lineup against projects to feature Didi Gregorius (re-signed to a two-year, $28-million contract) at shortstop and Jean Segura at second base. Both will play the middle infield in their age-31 seasons. Neither will challenge for a Gold Glove.
First baseman Rhys Hoskins has made his mark with his bat, not his glove. Third baseman Alec Bohm may have the most room for growth as he enters his first full MLB season.
The Phillies’ coaching staff has spent spring training emphasizing better pre-pitch preparation and positioning to its infielders. Will it stick and help a staff featuring ground-ball pitchers like Bradley, Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler?
The trio of Nola, Wheeler and Zach Eflin provided plenty of quality innings atop the rotation in 2020. The production plummeted when anyone else started.
Jake Arrieta, Vince Velasquez and Spencer Howard all had ERAs over five and WHIPs over 1.50. Arrieta has departed, but Velasquez and Howard return as competitors for rotation innings.
The Phillies added left-hander Matt Moore and Chase Anderson to their roster as they search for pitching depth. It doesn’t matter which pitchers emerge in the Nos. 4-5 rotation slots. The Phillies just need a couple of them to provide league-average work to complement the trio fronting their staff.
Center-field stability
The Phillies used a combination of Scott Kingery, Adam Haseley and Roman Quinn to man center field last season. No one from that group distinguished himself, leaving more questions about the Phils’ up-the-middle strength.
Kingery endured a miserable 2020 season after returning from a bout with COVID-19 but has at least one above-average season as a big-league hitter to his credit. Quinn has posted a .669 OPS in 404 major-league at-bats, while the Phillies seemed reluctant to give Haseley too much time in center.
But that was last season, and recent moves seem to indicate that the job is down to Haseley and Quinn.
The Phillies optioned Kingery to the minors Sunday after the 26-year-old posted a disappointing .159 batting average with 19 strikeouts and just seven hits through 15 spring training games this season. He will join Odubel Herrera on the Lehigh Valley IronPigs roster.
Girardi will have to continue to evaluate the center-field situation. Phillies center fielders combined for a .637 OPS last season, 12th in the National League and 26th in the majors. Quinn and Haseley combined for 82% of the team’s center-field plate appearances.
If either of them struggles to start the season, Kingery and Herrera are a phone call away. And if no one from the group pops, the Phillies may be forced to look for outside help when the trading season arrives.