In season’s 1st half, scoring takes a dip

Scoring is down, home-field advantage hasn’t returned even if the fans have, and the AFC could be in a wild race for playoff spots.

As the NFL gets set to start the second half of its 18-week season, there are a few notable statistical trends to pay attention to, with the two most notable being the reduction of scoring and home-team struggles.

Points per game have dropped by nearly two points per contest per team so far this season as a marked increase in offensive penalties and a small decrease in passing efficiency has taken a toll.

The average team is scoring 1.95 fewer points per game through nine weeks this season than in 2020, the third-biggest one-week drop through nine weeks since the merger. The bigger ones came in 1991 (2.58 pg) and 1977 (1.97 pg).

One factor could be a big increase in offensive penalties with holding, false starts and delay of games all increasing from last year’s pace. That has contributed to to a 35% increase in offensive penalties, while defensive penalties have remained flat.

While some of those penalties could be because of the return of fans, the sold-out stadiums haven’t made life more difficult overall for road teams and reversed the trend from last season when home teams had a losing record (127-128-1) for the first time since the merger.

Instead, road teams have gotten even better in 2021, finishing the first half of the season with a 70-64 record (.522), not counting two games played in London.

This trend started in 2019, when home teams posted a .518 winning percentage for the lowest mark since 1972.

Jam-packed AFC

The standings are tight at the top of the AFC with nine teams with five wins, including all four in the AFC West.

The Titans (7-2) and Ravens (6-2) sit at the top of the conference, but the 11 teams with winning records through nine weeks matches the most in NFL history. The only other time that happened was in 2014.

That season ended with six AFC teams getting double-digit wins and four missing the playoffs despite posting winning records.

Rookie QBs

With five quarterbacks selected in the first round of the draft in April, rookie QBs figured to be a storyline in 2021.

Three of them stepped in as Week 1 starters, with No. 1 pick Trevor Lawrence getting the job for the Jaguars, No. 2 pick Zach Wilson taking over for the Jets and No. 15 pick Mac Jones winning the job with the Patriots.

No. 11 pick Justin Fields became the starter in Week 3 for the Bears, while No. 3 pick Trey Lance and third-rounder Davis Mills have gotten starts because of injuries to starters for the 49ers and Texans.

In all, the rookies have made 34 starts for the second-most ever through nine weeks of a non-strike season, compared to the 41 in 2012 in a class headlined by Andrew Luck, Russell Wilson and Robert Griffin III.

While that trio made the playoffs as rookie starters, only Jones has his team in position for a playoff spot at the midpoint this season.

The rookies have combined for a 10-27 record as starters, with Jones earning half the wins.

Lawrence, Wilson, Fields and Mills have four of the worst six passer ratings among 33 qualified QBs.