Plenty to sort out down the stretch
Rivalry week and conference championship games loom, but there’s still plenty to sort out in college football. Here’s what to watch this week, starting with a look at the race for No. 2:
Ohio State and Alabama fight to be Georgia’s biggest threat:
We might find out Saturday. No. 4 Ohio State hosts No. 7 Michigan State, while No. 2 Alabama hosts No. 21 Arkansas. Both the Buckeyes and Crimson Tide are favored by nearly three touchdowns, so comfortable wins are expected. But when it comes to impressing the playoff committee, style points matter.
After overcoming a slow start that included a loss to Oregon, Ohio State has played like the best team in the country outside of Athens, Georgia. With a dominant 59-31 win over Purdue, the Buckeyes have risen to No. 2 in ESPN’s SP+ rankings, a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of efficiency. That includes the nation’s No. 1 offense and a defense that has climbed to No. 14, making the Buckeyes perhaps the most complete team in the country. Georgia’s offense has been effective behind quarterback Stetson Bennett IV, but Ohio State’s C.J. Stroud has blossomed into one of the most efficient quarterbacks in the country.
Not to be outdone is Alabama quarterback Bryce Young. The sophomore has put up some of the best stats in the country, ranking fourth in Total QBR. When it comes to skill-position talent on offense, Alabama’s combination of running back Brian Robinson Jr. and wide receivers Jameson Williams and John Metchie III trails only Ohio State’s group of running back TreVeyon Henderson and wide receivers Garrett Wilson, Chris Olave and Jaxon Smith-Njigba.
Of course, all that talent might not be enough to score more than 14 points against Georgia. As effective as Alabama and Ohio State have been on offense, the Bulldogs have been even better on defense. When it comes to the playoff, it’s a safe bet we’ll see some combination of these three teams. Whether the Buckeyes and Crimson Tide have enough firepower remains a mystery.
Bearcats look to stay in the conversation: Say what you will about Cincinnati’s strength of schedule, but the Bearcats can only play the teams in front of them. Unfortunately, the playoff committee has made it known time and again that it’s not how you play, but who you play.
That makes Cincinnati’s margin for error perilously thin. It’s not enough to go undefeated against an American Athletic Conference schedule with a win over Notre Dame — the Bearcats need to look dominant while doing it. That’s been a struggle of late, with close wins over Navy and Tulsa and a sloppy first half against South Florida raising doubts about Cincinnati’s strength.
But the Bearcats have a chance to put some of those doubts to rest Saturday against SMU. The Mustangs might not be ranked, but they are 8-2 with one of the best offenses in the country. If Cincinnati can shut them down, that will go a long way toward bolstering what’s likely to be an undefeated resume.
Duck hunt: It’s Week 12, and Oregon is still in the playoff hunt — for now. There’s still plenty of work to be done to seal the deal.
That starts with a potential Pac-12 championship game preview Saturday night against No. 23 Utah, which has quietly won six of its last seven games after a 1-2 start. While it’s normally the defense doing most of the heavy lifting for the Utes, dual-threat quarterback Cameron Rising and the three-headed monster of running backs Tavion Thomas, TJ Pledger and Micah Bernard have formed one of the best offenses in the country.
There’s a reason Utah is favored at home. Quarterback Anthony Brown and the Ducks have plenty of work ahead of them if they want to stay inside the top four heading into championship weekend. Even if Oregon wins out, Ohio State, Alabama, Cincinnati and maybe even Notre Dame might have a better claim come Selection Sunday.