Livability indexes can forecast climate change disruptions
The 26th U.N. Climate Change Conference in Glasgow, Scotland ended Nov. 12. Leaders from 120 nations with over 20,000 delegates were in attendance.
Billed as a pivotal moment and last chance to prevent far-worse scenarios from climate change, it was mostly business as usual. More empty promises and toothless agreements.
Two of the three biggest greenhouse gas emitters, Russia and China, were no-shows.
One reason nations don’t feel the pressure to move faster is that climate change models and tracking metrics don’t convey the urgency and danger people are facing.
For the delegates, it is about negotiating numbers. The human connection is missing.
The best hope for preventing the collapse of civil society is to rally the majority of the public to demand immediate action through their votes. I believe this can be accomplished if we reframe climate reporting and discussions from scientific metrics and values to human metrics and values using livability indexes.
Livability indexes will forecast what disruptions people can expect from climate change. The indexes will track, report and forecast regional impacts of climate change.
Nationally, livability indexes will track water scarcity, flood and fire risks and extreme heat and weather.
Does my health require a move to a cooler climate? What is the forest fire risk for my property? Will my house be subject to flooding? When will I have to say goodbye to my shore cottage?
International data would add climate refugees, civil unrest, government instability and heat and starvation deaths (all rapidly growing problems related to climate change). The CIA, Pentagon and others already track this information.
If the data is nonpolitical, relevant, accessible and easy to understand, the public will accept it and news agencies will refer to it. Most importantly, this information will counter the prevailing apathy and doubt, helping people to be informed and motivated voters.
Know there is no magic in keeping global temperature from rising above 1.5 degree Celsius or carbon concentrations in the atmosphere from exceeding 350 parts per million. Setting a target for containing temperature increase gives people false hope and encourages further procrastination.
The current 1 degree Celsius rise is already responsible for unprecedented destructive storms, drought, rising seas and forest fires costing billions of dollars, taking thousands of lives and forcing millions of people to leave their homes.
Temperatures are forecast to reach
2.4 Celsius increase by 2100. Carbon already exceeds 400 ppm. Heavily populated regions of the U.S. will go under water or become otherwise unlivable in our lifetime.
The situation internationally is increasingly dire, with entire island nations going under water and crops failing as extended drought or flooding destroys the soil.
Here are three reasons global warming, the cause of climate change, will increase:
We are putting more carbon in the atmosphere each year than the year before.
There is substantial lag time from when the carbon is emitted until it has impact on the climate.
And early climate change impacts lead to additional and often more severe damage.
Two examples: Warmer Arctic weather is melting ocean ice, leaving darker surface water that absorbs heat and warms the ocean. Melting permafrost releases methane, a greenhouse gas more potent than carbon dioxide.
There is no stopping climate change from causing more misery every year than the year before. But we can do something.
The quicker we stop using fossil fuels (mitigation) and the more we prepare for the inevitable disruptions (adaptation), the more we can limit the suffering and environmental damage.
Unfortunately, our system of government isn’t well structured for either mitigation or adaptation.
We have a history of electing people who make us feel good rather than people who will do good. We are more likely to elect people who appeal to our present needs and desires than people who will work to ensure a livable world for our grandchildren.
Even well-intentioned officials, once elected, are readily corrupted by corporate lobbyists, ambition, loyalty to their party and the expectations of people who fill their campaign coffers.
Any significant progress in addressing climate change requires global cooperation. Unfortunately, many world leaders are more interested in staying in power than doing what is needed.
Cooperation requires compromise. Compromise shows weakness and increases risk of expulsion. Good leaders have short tenures.
Are we doomed? Probably yes. If not in our lifetimes, then in the next hundred years or so.
Should we give up? Absolutely not. I could be wrong. You could make me wrong. Learn the facts. Speak up. Talk to your friends. Be honest with your children. Support worthy candidates and vote.