Gov. Doug Mastriano? Why that is not a long shot
It could be days until all of the results are known from Tuesday’s Pennsylvania primary election. But enough is certain that we can start looking ahead to what could happen in the November midterm.
Gov. Doug Mastriano
If that has you rummaging for your Tums, you have plenty of company. Save some for me.
Pennsylvania quickly would become Florida with him as king and a GOP-controlled Legislature to carry out his bidding.
The Republican establishment did all it could to prevent Mastriano, a 2020 election conspiracy champion and friend of the QAnon crowd, from winning Tuesday. It doesn’t think he has a prayer of beating well-financed Democrat Josh Shapiro in November.
Don’t believe it. It’s a real possibility.
Candidates Jake Corman and Melissa Hart dropped out of the race and endorsed former Congressman Lou Barletta, hoping he could beat Mastriano and give Republicans a fighting chance in the general election.
The state Senate’s Republican floor leader, Kim Ward, endorsed another candidate, Dave White.
Pennsylvania megadonor
Jeff Yass asked candidate Bill McSwain to drop out, too, so as not to split the vote and clear a path for Mastriano, The New York Times reported Monday.
Right-leaning Commonwealth Partners Chamber of Entrepreneurs refused to endorse Mastriano, saying in a statement that he “would not be able to win the swing voters necessary to win in November.”
Heck, even I crawled back to the Republican Party for Tuesday’s election, discarding my independent voter status so I could vote for a candidate other than him.
It seems as if Shapiro wanted Mastriano to be his opponent, too. He was running attack ads against him before the primary. But don’t count Mastriano out. Remember, no one gave Donald Trump a shot in 2016, either.
Polls had him well behind. And he won.
Many Trump voters support Mastriano. And in the midterms, you can bet they will vote in large numbers as the Republicans seek to regain control of Congress and build a path to retake the White House in 2024.
A lot of Pennsylvania Republican voters who preferred other candidates in the primary will vote for Mastriano in November, even if they have to gulp down a few Tums before they do.
They will consider that a better alternative than allowing another Democrat to sleep in the governor’s mansion.
It would be easy to predict the November gubernatorial election will be a repeat of 2018, when even-keeled, borderline boring Democrat Tom Wolf trounced Scott Wagner, a brash-talking Trump clone.
I wouldn’t make that bet. The Mastriano-Shapiro race will be tight.
Abortion vs. inflation
Who won the primaries for both parties may not really matter. Races could be decided in November based on whether voters are angrier about inflation or the overturning of Roe v. Wade (assuming that occurs as a leaked Supreme Court draft opinion suggests).
If swing voters are more concerned about their pocketbooks than with a woman’s right to choose, then Republican candidates should get more votes. If middle-of-the road voters believe abortion rights are more important than rising costs, Democratic candidates should benefit.
Expect abortion and inflation to dominate the campaigns. Independent-minded voters who aren’t staunchly pro-life or pro-choice but who are feeling the pinch of inflation will be bombarded. Their votes will be coveted and they will be pushed to decide which issue is more important.
Whichever party succeeds in making its issue the top one in voters’ minds is going to benefit, even if voters are not particularly enamored with the candidates on their side.
It is going to be a tougher campaign for Democrats.
Their urban base may not be able to withstand the impact of inflation as well as suburban Republicans. Their desire for relief from real-life financial pressures may be more important than concerns about abortion, a decision they may never personally face.