Plenty to consider
Five questions, answers as the Phillies enter the All-Star break
If I’d told you at the beginning of the 2022 season that the Phillies would play so poorly they’d fire their manager in June, that Bryce Harper would tear an elbow ligament in April and later miss two months with a broken thumb, and that their No. 1 offseason addition would flop and their No. 2 addition would hit .218 in the leadoff spot, you’d never believe they would end the season two wins shy of a World Series title.
Which raised this overarching question in the offseason: Was the 2022 edition for real? Should we expect another Red October? The answers: Sort of, and yes.
Here’s what we’ve learned so far about what were the five most important issues entering 2023.
1. Rob Thomson was made for this:
This was not always obvious.
The most significant event of 2022 happened June 3, when Thomson, the affable and steady career coach, replaced his friend, tense and vitriolic Joe Girardi, as manager.
Thomson didn’t make all the right moves in 2022, but his approach decompressed the atmosphere. The Phillies hit better in the clutch, played better defense, and celebrated their success. Thomson also was less of a slave to analytics than Girardi was.
Thomson has had to navigate slow starts by four top starters and the absence of a fifth; a rebuilt and injured bullpen; horrid starts by Kyle Schwarber and Trea Turner; and Harper’s recovery from elbow surgery. The Phillies were 25-32 on June 3, eight games out of first place, and there were concerns about whether “Topper,” in his first full season as a manager, was cut out for the job.
He never wavered.
The Phillies enter the break at 48-41, and while Atlanta is hopelessly out of reach in the NL East — the Phils are 12 games behind the Braves — Thomson’s club has weathered the worst of the season. Of their remaining 73 games, 51 are against teams not currently in a playoff spot.
Again, he hasn’t been perfect, particularly late in games.
But he put Schwarber back in the leadoff spot and saved his season; he nurtured slugger Nick Castellanos and closer Craig Kimbrel back into All-Star form; he masterfully juggled the bullpen; and he made secondyear infielder Bryson Stott indispensable despite switching from shortstop to second base.
Thomson has done all of this without slugging first baseman Rhys Hoskins, the team’s leader.
Thomson’s for real.
2. Would Trea Turner, 2023, be Nick Castellanos, 2022?
So far, yes.
Turner in 2023 has, in total, been better than Castellanos in 2022, but we’re not comparing apples to apples. Castellanos got $100 million for five years. Turner got $300 million for 11 years. He’s supposed to be a lot better.
Turner’s hitting about 50 points below his career .302 average. He’s already made 10 errors; he’s never made more than 16. His OPS is below .700, and if it finishes there, it will be the worst of his eight full seasons.
There is hope, of course. Castellanos proved that.
3. Would Nick Castellanos in 2023 be Castellanos from 2022?
So far, no. He’s the team’s first-half MVP.
Castellanos posted a .694 OPS in 2022, the worst of his career. He has since admitted that signing a huge contract and being a high-profile star in a big pressure city paralyzed him.
“I was just [ticked] off, unhappy, frustrated,” Castellanos told reporters at spring training. “Baseball wasn’t fun.”
It’s fun now. Castellanos is hitting .301 with an .840 OPS, 13 home runs, and 55 RBIs. In an era that diminishes the importance of the RBI, Castellanos’ clutch run production provides a sensible argument in favor of the stat.
Somehow, he’s also playing the best defense of his life in right field. This has been incredibly important, considering that Schwarber, in left field, is the worst defensive player in baseball, and considering that Castellanos has replaced Harper, a very good fielder, in right field.
Schwarber and Castellanos were signed last year to share the National League’s new DH slot. However, Harper has occupied that slot since early last season when he hasn’t been sidelined by injury.
That has been a minor miracle.
4. When would Bryce Harper return, if at all … and to what effect?
When Harper tore ligaments in his right (throwing) arm on April 16 last season, there was a chance he might be done for the year. Instead, he didn’t miss a game in the lineup aside from the time he was out with a broken thumb. He became the everyday DH.
When Harper had elbow surgery in November, there was a chance he might miss most of 2023, if not all of it.
The best hope was that he’d return now, at the All-Star break. Instead, Harper came back May. 2. He again has occupied the DH slot, and while he’s hit just three homers and his OPS is just .786, about 120 points lower than his career mark, he’s hitting .290, running the bases, and contributing an All-Star presence.
He’s not 2021 MVP Bryce, who led the majors with a
1.044 OPS, but he’s driven in 23 runs in 56 games playing one-handed. And he might return to the field as the team’s first baseman after the break — a break his team’s aces can sorely use.
5. How would Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola respond to maximum usage, the pitch clock and free agency?
Not great.
Nola was fine physically, if under-conditioned, early this season, but the pitch clock and his pending free agency has distracted him all year. He’s eating up innings — 119, and counting — but his 4.39 ERA would be the third-worst of his career.
Wheeler, arguably the best starter in the majors since 2020, can no longer make that argument.
His 4.05 ERA would be the second-worst of his career.
Nola worked a career-high number of innings last year, and Wheeler might have also, had he not been sidelined for a month with forearm tendinitis. It shows.
Nobody needs the All-Star break more than these guys.