Hurts’ MVP chances at stake in Dallas on Sunday
PHILADELPHIA — David Carr is being a self-promoting and willful idiot, but there is a kernel of truth in his misevaluation of MVP candidate Jalen Hurts.
Carr, who failed as an NFL quarterback for a decade and now opines for the NFL Network, said Tuesday that the Eagles would be wise to immediately bench Hurts in favor of backup Marcus Mariota, also a failed quarterback. Carr was on the right track, but he took it to an absurd extreme in order to generate attention for himself (and it’s working, and I hate myself for it). Carr also said Hurts can’t read defenses, a demonstrably false comment loaded with baggage I hoped we’d moved past 20 years ago, but apparently not. These are ridiculous contentions, but bashing Carr is not the point here. Maybe it should be, but it’s not.
The point, rather is this: If Hurts doesn’t play better at Dallas on Sunday night, while he won’t have to worry about being benched, he won’t have to worry about winning the MVP, either.
The stage could not be better set. Hurts had been the MVP favorite for two weeks. Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott has, for all intents, taken over that designation. The winner Sunday night will become the prohibitive MVP favorite for the rest of the season. It is a referendum game on which QB is the best in the NFC East, which always will be the league’s marquee division. The NFL’s two most popular teams play each other in prime time, star-driven clubs, one coached by a lunatic, one owned by a madman. But Nick Sirianni and Jerry Jones will matter far less than Dak and Jalen.
What about the rest of the race? Well, 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy, essentially a co-favorite with Dak, should never be seriously considered as long as all-purpose unicorn Christian McCaffrey, the NFL’s best player, continues to produce, because Purdy’s success is predicated on McCaffrey’s existence. This might not be completely fair, since this season Purdy beat them both, threw four TD passes against both, and outplayed both in 42-point outbursts. Reigning MVP Patrick Mahomes is in the mix thanks to his State Farm commercials, and, like Purdy, Tua Tagovailoa’s candidacy is a product of receiver Tyreek Hill, the Dolphins’ MVP. I can’t imaging Lamar Jackson getting another first-place vote until he finally wins a second playoff game.
Dak can put it away this weekend, but Sunday will be everything to Hurts.
He’s still riding a strong narrative: second-round project thrives in the wake of villain Carson Wentz. He has played well back to the beginning of 2022, when he outplayed everyone’s expectations, lost the MVP award to a shoulder injury, returned from that injury, and led the Eagles to the Super Bowl. He has been very good, and sometimes great, in 2023. He also has often been ordinary, and he has been solved: Defensive coaches with the proper personnel now can limit him.
We’ll know better at midnight Sunday.
You know, as long as Sirianni doesn’t bench Hurts for Mariota.
Nothing else, really, will be decided this weekend. If the Eagles lose, they would fall into a tie for the top seed in both the NFC East and the NFC playoff seeding with Dallas, San Francisco, and Detroit, if the Niners beat the Seahawks (maybe) and Lions win at Chicago (lock).
Even if the Eagles win, they will retain at least a one-game lead over the 49ers and Lions, and hold two games and tiebreakers over the Cowboys, which will likely assure the Eagles at least a division title … but “likely” is not “certain.” Four weeks and 400 variables remain after Sunday, so the playoff picture will be anything but resolved. The Eagles have yet to play consistently excellent football. They lost to the Jets without Aaron Rodgers. They lost a revenge game to the 49ers, their chief competition for the No. 1 seed and the bye. They still face the Giants twice, a desperate Seattle team on the road next weekend, and former defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon and his Cardinals. None are walkover wins.
Especially if Hurts continues to look ordinary, or worse, in the first half of his games. The encouraging aspect of this season’s story has been Hurts’ ability to flourish in the fourth quarter. The disturbing aspect of this season’s story has been his inability to flourish before the fourth quarter arrives.
Excellent teams and excellent quarterbacks build leads and hold them. That’s what last year’s Eagles did.
This year’s Eagles continually fail to do that. If they fail again Sunday, it won’t cost Hurts his starting job. Duh.
Bull but it will cost him some hardware.