When a line on a chart misleads

WASHINGTON » Oh, those charts.

President Donald Trump passed one around on Twitter in recent days, and it showing spending on Medicaid rising for years in the future under the stalled Republican health care bill. You’d never know from his chart’s mountain-climbing line , or his rhetoric, that the bill would inflict deep cuts in the program.

A drawing can be made to show what the person making the display wants people to see, even using correct numbers, but in a way that obscures reality. Similarly, Vice President Mike Pence had a chart onstage weeks ago showing how enrollment under the Obama-era health law fell far short of predictions. That’s only because Pence and his chart ignored the estimated 12 million lowincome people covered under the overhaul’s Medicaid expansion.

Trump’s tweet came during a week of tussling over the Senate Republican health bill, a White House cheerleading session for U.S. energy and assertions by the president on trade — subjects producing a variety of statements that call for scrutiny. A sampling: TRUMP: “For many, many years, the United States has suffered through massive trade deficits. That’s why we have $20 trillion in debt. So we’ll be changing that.” — Remarks Friday in meeting with South Korean President Moon Jae-in and aides.

THE FACTS: Trump’s comments suggest he could use a refresher in how the economy works. Trade deficits are not why the U.S. has nearly $20 trillion in national debt.

Because the U.S. imports more than it exports, it has a negative trade balance, or a deficit. Of course, many of the goods that the U.S. imports are popular with consumers so a deficit isn’t necessarily negative. Americans may buy coffee from Central America, electronics from China, cars from South Korea and jeans sewn in Turkey.

The national debt is a separate thing. It’s the debt accumulated from budget deficits year after year, when the federal government must borrow because it spends more than it collects in taxes. The total public debt outstanding is $19.8 trillion.

If Trump seeks to reduce that figure, he would probably need to do some combination of cutting spending, increasing tax revenues and fueling significantly faster economic growth.

TRUMP: “Democrats purposely misstated Medicaid under new Senate bill — actually goes up.” — tweet Wednesday, with chart.

KELLYANNE CONWAY, White House senior adviser: “These are not cuts to Medicaid, George. This slows the rate for the future and it allows governors more flexibility with Medicaid dollars because they’re closest to the people in need.” — Sunday on ABC’s “This Week.”

THE FACTS: The stalled Senate bill would cut Medicaid — by phasing out ex-President Barack Obama’s expansion of the program and reducing over time the number of people who can be on it.

The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office estimates the program would cover 15 million fewer people by 2026, a 16 percent reduction. Although Trump and Conway are correct that Medicaid spending overall would continue to rise, and at a slower rate than projected, the effect would be a significant cut in the program.