Use of analytics by coaches spreading

The game still nags at Tulane coach Willie Fritz. The big upset that got away.

Fritz was head coach at Georgia Southern when the Eagles took a 20-10 lead in the fourth quarter of their 2014 opener against North Carolina State. The Wolfpack rallied to win, 24-23, after Fritz made a fourthdown decision — a gut call he is still kicking himself about.

Fritz is no longer interested in following his gut.

“That may be the hot dog I had before the game,” Fritz said. “I want facts and numbers.”

College football has been slower to become immersed in the type of statistical analysis and data-based decision-making that has revolutionized sports such as baseball and basketball. But it is happening: An increasing number of college football programs are using analytics to decide everything from when to go on fourth down to what prospect to offer a scholarship.

When it comes to ingame strategy, a six-yearold company named Championship Analytics, Inc., is quickly making a mark. CAI has gone from three schools subscribing to its service in 2014 to 53 this year, including 38 FBS teams.

Using a patented system of statistical analysis, CAI provides its clients each week with a game book, a three-ring binder stuffed with pages of color-coded charts and a by-the-numbers breakdown of the matchup. Taking strengths and weaknesses of each team into account, the game book lays out possible scenarios and gives strategic recommendations based on which option provides the best odds of winning.

Rob Ash was one of CAI’s first clients when he was coach at Montana State. He now works for the company as director of coaching development, a role that is part salesman and part spokesman. Ash said CAI was a game-changer for him in two areas: When to go on fourth down instead of kicking and how to manage the clock and timeouts at the end of games.

Coaches often talk about having to think several plays ahead. The game book helps them, Ash said. Here’s how: Team X starts a drive, first-and-10 from its own 25 with 5:30 left in the third quarter, down by 7 points. The game book projects ahead to fourth down from that point and recommends what is best depending on the yardage needed.

“If you know that fourthand-2 or -3 is going to be a go-situation you know on first down you only need to get seven yards on three plays instead of 10. So you can structure your play calling accordingly,” Ash said.

The percentages change with each opponent.