Colder, wetter winter on its way

There’s no sugarcoating it — winter is coming. Well, who are we kidding, right? Although not atypical for mid-November, the first, albeit light, snowfall has already taken place, and the low temperatures, which will continue to fluctuate throughout the mo

And that’s not factoring in La Niña’s advent for a second straight year, as the ocean-atmosphere phenomenon remains the biggest weather wild card there is.

“It’s a global pattern game changer,” Pastelok said by phone Nov. 10. “Most weather is affected greatly by it. The cooling of the water in the equatorial station drives weather patterns to the north, as southern latitudes can and usually remain dry. The increase in North-style systems create your (Canadian) clippers, the fast-moving, lowpressure winter storm systems that drive southeast through the Plains, Midwest and Great Lakes region.”

With La Niña’s emergence — there’s a 55 percent to 65 percent chance of conditions developing before winter sets in, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration — its overall effect is expect to be “weak” and “short-lived.”

“Typical La Niña patterns during winter include above average precipitation and colder than average temperatures along the Northern tier of the United States and below normal precipitation and drier conditions across the South,” said Mike Halpert, deputy director of NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.

Pastelok echoed Halpert’s outlook.

“We’re looking at a colder winter this year compared to normal,” he said. “Now, we’re basically preparing for a departure from the normal average temps. Usually, the colder it is earlier helps people understand that it’s going to be colder throughout the winter.

“Last year, we were 5.6 degrees warmer. We’ll see a change from that, almost a 7 degree departure. That’s a significant change. The bottom line is more money and more energy is going to be used to warm homes this winter, though larger cities to the west and northwest, like Chicago and Minneapolis, will be affected more.”

And when it comes to accumulated snowfall, gas up the blowers and/or prepare to do some serious shoveling.

“With snowfall, we were down last year,” Pastelok said. “Last winter, the area got about 37 inches the entire season when the area usually averages about 70 inches, even with the lakeeffect (snow). The snow will be double that (37 inches) this year, maybe even a bit more.”

Two main factors are responsible this year, added Pastelok: the California drought and the subsequent marine layer (air masses) moving east.

“Last year, the California drought broke and marine masses warmed the air over the Rockies,” he said. “It cut off Arctic air masses. These two variables gave us a mild January in 2017. The air is not coming west to east like that this year. Therefore, we’ll also experience wetter conditions.”

While AccuWeather and NOAA both acknowledge there’s no sure-fire barometer to predict winter weather, especially in the Great Lakes region, both sources encourage proper preparation to ensure safety, no matter the conditions, in an “equal chance category,” meaning the part of the country where above-, near- or below-typical temperatures and/or precipitation can become a reality at any given time.