The Morning Journal (Lorain, OH)
BEAUTY OR THE BEAST?
While outsiders have a chance, best picture looks to come down to the artistic ‘Shape of Water’ and the seething-with-anger ‘Three Billboards’
Tom O’Neil almost sounds as if he hasn’t recovered from last year’s big Academy Awards envelope snafu, when the top prize — best picture — was given, albeit briefly, to “La La Land” instead of the actual winner, “Moonlight.” ¶ “That was like a drive-by shooting,” says O’Neil, during a recent phone call from New York City. “You couldn’t believe what you were seeing.”
O’Neil, who grew up in Mentor and splits his time between New York and Los Angeles, is the president and editor at GoldDerby.com, a site he founded in 2000 and is now owned by Penske Media Corp. Gold Derby presents regularly updated predictions for the Oscars, as well as Emmys, Grammys and other industry awards. The predictions are based on the expectations of experts such as O’Neil, but the site is also a place for fans to weigh in on what or who they think will win. As an awards show junkie, he greatly enjoyed last year’s drama. “This is why we love awards shows,” he says. “It’s reality TV with superstars, and they make stupid mistakes the same way we do. And they’re fallible — we often look to awards shows to see Jennifer Lawrence trip on her way to the stage.” This year the drama likely will come, again, from that top award. “We have another cliffhanger for best picture,” he says. “It’s ‘(The) Shape of Water’ versus ‘Three Billboards (Outside Ebbing, Missouri), while three other films are within shouting distance: ‘Dunkirk,’ ‘Get Out’ and ‘Lady Bird.’ “And,” he continues, “given the preferential ballot, they can win.”
He is referring to a change the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences made a few years ago when it comes to picking the Academy Award for Best Picture.
“You win best picture these days by having the most No.-1, -2 or -3 votes, not just the most No.-1s,” O’Neil says. “The academy is looking for a consensus pick, and that’s what’s confounding the experts lately — trying to size up the race by answering, ‘What is the most beloved film of the year?’ And it’s hard to nail down.”
As of the morning of Feb. 28, “Three Billboards” was a slight favorite over “The Shape of Water,” according to GoldDerby’s official odds. And while both films — the former a dark drama, albeit one with a vicious humorous streak, about tragedy and justice, the latter a beautifully shot science-fiction romance — have their champions and detractors, O’Neil says one is far more polarizing than the other.
“When you’re in Hollywood, you hear a lot of backlash against ‘Three Billboards’ and no other film, so it’s that divisive quality it has that should sink it as best-picture consensus because that’s what ‘La La Land’ had going against it — it was either your No.-1 vote or your No.-5, -6, -7 or -8 vote.
“So it may be an easy win for ‘Shape of Water’ because of that,” he adds. “‘Shape of Water’ is a movie, more or less, everybody loves and admires — or at least admires. ‘Three Billboards’ is edgy, dangerous, in-yourface and unrelentingly angry.” On the other hand … “‘Billboards’ has overperformed everywhere,” he says, referring to the other awards shows that lead up to the Oscars. “It overperformed at the Golden Globes. It over-performed at (the British Academy of Film and Television Arts Awards). It over-performed at (the Screen Actors Guild Awards). It won three awards at SAG — that ties a record.”
He notes it already has “under-performed” with the Oscars in that Martin McDonagh, an Irish playwright whose film credits include 2008’s highly regarded “In Bruges,” did not receive a nomination for best director.
“(But those voters represent) a very, very small branch within the Academy of very snobbish people, and they may just not consider an Irish playwright an equal to them as a serious director. Who knows why McDonagh got snubbed, but it doesn’t take that movie out of the running. It’s very daredevil in terms of plot construction and character expectations.”
If there’s a film that doesn’t fit the Oscar mold, it’s GoldDerby’s third-mostlikely to win, the aforementioned “Get Out.” Released just over a year ago — and February isn’t a hot time for Oscar hopefuls, by the way — writer-director Jordan Peele’s horror-comedy deals with racial issues in a creative way and has been a crowd-pleaser.
“‘Get Out’ has defied all Oscar rules,” O’Neil says. “It’s a serious candidate to win best picture that represents two genres (typically) snubbed: horror and comedy. That fact that it’s being treated so enthusiastically by awards groups and Hollywood guilds for the past seven months or so is really remarkable.
“I did not peg this as a serious Oscar contender, and most other pundits didn’t either because of its commercial makeup. On the other hand, it is resonating powerfully on the awards scene, and it could be that little movie that, once again, proves the impossible when Oscar announces its winner. There’s a little bit of an anarchist in all of us who would secretly love to see ‘Get Out’ win just to screw with the whole Hollywood system and to make a statement about popular films that the Oscars have been ignoring lately.”
The acting awards, O’Neil says, are “locked and loaded,” with GoldDerby predicting wins for Frances McDormand (“Three Billboards”), best actress; Gary Oldman (“Darkest Hour”), best actor; Allison Janney (“I, Tonya”), best supporting actress; and Sam Rockwell (“Three Billboards”), best supporting actor.
“The four of them have won everything,” O’Neil says. “Anytime you run the board like that, you automatically win at the Oscars.”
He adds that the Oscars rarely go totally according to script, and, thus, maybe we shouldn’t count out Laurie Metcalf (“Lady Bird”) overtaking Janney.
“Oscar voters are going to want to acknowledge that film in one category, and that may be the place they do it. On the other hand, Oscar voters love cartoonish villains lately,” he says, referencing Janney’s portrayal of the not-so-pleasant mother of figure skater Tonya Harding.
In the director category, Guillermo Del Toro (“The Shape of Water”) is a big favorite over Christopher Nolan (“Dunkirk”).
“The Oscars have been rewarding the kind of artsy directors who have taken on ambitious films lately,” O’Neil says. “That’s the film with the spectacular achievements that is put out by an indie director who