Predictions come out for algae bloom

Lake Erie observers say it’s too soon to exactly tell what will happen if there is a harmful algal bloom in summer 2018.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration released its first Lake Erie Harmful Algal Bloom Early Season Projection on May 7; the second one came out a week later. The prediction is just that. Spring loading season runs from March 1 to July 31.

The severity of harmful algae depends on the amount of phosphorus that washes into the Western Basin of Lake Erie.

Much of the phosphorus comes from the Maumee River during the loading season, March 1, to July 31.

“The key issue is the load of phosphorus in the spring,” said Richard P. Stumpf, oceanographer at the NOAA National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science in Maryland. “The spring is from March into July. That really drives the bloom.”

For northern Ohio residents, it may feel like it has been a wet spring.

The early season project notes that precipitation was average in March.

“April was wetter than average, and May is expected to be somewhat wetter than average,” according to the projection.

There was rainfall this week, but “the current outlook for June suggests drier conditions,” the report said.

As a result, “the uncertainty is quite large,” as of May 14.

The projection will become more accurate once the models are replaced with data.

Despite some days with cold temperatures on land, researchers have found no relation between the weather and the temperature of the lake in April and May and what happens when algae grows in July’s warmer, Stumpf said.

Central Basin green-blues

The harmful algal blooms tend to start in Lake Erie’s Western Basin, but can move east to the Central Basin, including the area off Lorain, Stumpf said.

Much of the movement depends on the winds creating currents and wave action in the water, he said.

“You’re at risk mostly if we get to a large bloom and westerly winds,” pushing the algae off Huron, Vermilion and Lorain, Stumpf said.

“It very much is driven by which way the wind is blowing,” he said.

In September 2011, there was a large bloom that spread east of Cleveland, but in September 2015, the large bloom spread more into the center of the lake toward Canada, Stumpf said.

“The bloom does not cover the whole lake,” he said.

Effects in Lorain

While the threat of toxic algae has not been huge for Lorain, local officials say they do pay attention to the forecasts.

Since testing for the toxins began in 2011, the Lorain Water Treatment Plant logged just one instance of the toxin in the raw water in 2015.

There was no amount detectable in the treated water, said Paul Wilson, director of utilities for the city of Lorain. How healthy is Lake Erie? We take a look at the health and popularity of Lake Erie as the summer recreation season begins. In addition to the growing algae problem, this three-part series will look at invaders such as Asian carp and also the state of recreational boating.

The water plant has a sensor that can monitor for the toxin and other water conditions as the plant sucks in raw water from Lake Erie, Wilson said.

In 2016, the Ohio Environmental Protection Agency also mandated water treatment plants to create plans to deal with algae toxins in the water, he said.

If the toxin was in the raw water at high levels and detected in the treated water, the city would warn residents not to drink it, like what happened in Toledo in summer 2014, Wilson said.

“If there was a big enough bloom and it would overtake the plant, that’s always a possibility,” he said. “But I think

we have a pretty good handle on all the possibilities.”

At Lakeview Park, swimming will be forbidden if harmful algae is suspected off the shore, said Bryan Goldthorpe, park manager for Lorain County Metro Parks.

In the last few years, that has happened just once, Goldthorpe said.

“If I suspect it, I’m not letting people in the water,” he said. “I, as a beach manager, am not taking chances with the public’s health.”

The wave action off Lakeview Park tends to help break up the algae and keep water flowing.

Sandusky Bay, where wave action can be more restricted, tends to have a larger algae problem than the area off Lorain, Goldthorpe said.