The Morning Journal (Lorain, OH)
Expanded playoffs: What could have been
With the NFL set to add a seventh playoff team in each conference this season, here’s a look at how that would have played out in past seasons, including Derek Anderson and the Browns, right.
Lovie Smith’s coaching tenure in Chicago might not have ended had the Bears made the playoffs his final three seasons instead of missing out by one spot his last two years.
Playoff droughts in Cleveland and Tampa Bay wouldn’t be nearly as long or painful had the Browns and Bucs sneaked their way into the postseason as the third wild card in 2007 and ‘16, respectively.
The last two Super Bowl champions could have had a tougher time winning titles if Kansas City (2019) and New England (2018) had to play games on wildcard weekend instead of earning byes.
The NFL’s decision to expand the playoffs from 12 to 14 teams this season could have a major impact on the league based on how things have played out in the past.
While some might complain of a dilution of quality, the percentage of teams that made the playoffs with 32 franchises under the new format (43%) is essentially the same as it was from 1990-94 (44%) when the then-28 team league last expanded the playoffs from 10 to 12 qualifiers.
The NFL has been playing under this format of eight division winners and four wild-card teams since Houston was added as an expansion franchise in 2002.
During that span, the difference in the average record of the seventhplace team (9.1 wins per season) in each conference was negligible when compared to the worst team that made the playoffs each season (9.2), whether it was as the fourth-seeded division winner or the second wild-card team.
In all, 23 franchises would have benefited from at least one more playoff berth, led by Minnesota and Pittsburgh with four extra trips each. New Orleans, Atlanta, Chicago, Denver, Houston, Tennessee and Tampa Bay — yes, Tampa Bay, which hasn’t made the postseason since 2007 — all would have had two more playoff appearances if the seasons had played out the same way.
Under the format in place since 2002, no team with a losing record would have gotten the third wildcard spot and the extra team would have been more likely to be a doubledigit winner (nine times) than a .500 team (eight times).
Nine times in the 18 years of the current format, a team seeded second in its conference made it to the Super Bowl, with the Chiefs and Patriots winning it all that way the past two seasons. 8-8 Steelers matching up with eventual Super Bowl champion Kansas City last season, for example. But in other years, the extra game would be an intriguing one. Here are a few of the best:
2018: No. 7 Pittsburgh at New England. The Steelers beat the Patriots 17-10 at home in Week 15 and could have had another shot in the wild-card round.
2010: No. 7 New York Giants at Chicago. Eli Manning and the Giants proved they are more than capable of making a Super Bowl run out of wild-card weekend. factors.