The Morning Journal (Lorain, OH)
District releases five-year forecast
Elyria City School District’s Board of Education approved the five year forecast, with assumptions, presented on Nov. 4 by treasurer and CFO Joy Clickenger.
The forecast is a tool to look at resources to the future and can be used to plan the future for the students, said Clickenger.
The forecast is required by the Ohio Department of Education and the auditor’s office to identify schools with potential financial issues.
The forecast covers the general fund only and also aligns with the district’s mission which is to ensure each child reaches his or her full potential.
“Each 5-year forecast merely updates the forecast that was last given to you,” said Clickenger
It can be revisited anytime. The forecast is not brought to board for approval except for twice a year.”
According to the forecast, the unpredictable times due to novel coronavirus pandemic has caused issues within predicting the future of the district’s general funds.
“I want you to understand that the five year forecast is based on my best crystal ball. I have made many assumptions I cannot base on trends due to the times we are in and my assumptions are based on assumptions with other leaders in finance and my own biases,” Clickenger said.
During her presentation, Clickenger said the district needs to keep its eye on revenue sources and expenditures as the pandemic continues. Clickenger is hoping to return to normal next year.
Revenues over the past five years have decreased at an annual .5% rate.
“Point five percent isn’t much but even if you have revenues that are remaining flat and expenditures that are increasing, that creates a problem eventually,” she said.
Expenditures in the district are shown with an average increase of just under 4%. This year, premium costs did not increase but the employee share increased by a half percent.
After this year, Clickenger forecasted 12% every year of the forecast for insurance benefits. Salary costs around 48% of expenditure costs, said Clickenger. Additionally, benefit costs make up over 19% of spending.
The largest expenditure of the district is paying tuition to other districts followed by purchase services.
“It’s out of our control. We can do what we can to try and hold onto the students we have but if they elect to go to another district we don’t have a choice, we have to spend that,” Clickenger said.
The fiscal years in 2024 and 2025 are currently estimated to end in the negative. However. Clickenger said like the rest of the forecast, its subject to change due to new legislation, circumstances and leadership.
“We’re fortunate to have case reserves and the forecast anticipates it will be depleted by the end of 2024,” she said.
Clickenger said Elyria last asked for additional operating funds from voters in May of 2010. The normal cycle across the state is to go to voters every three years, she said. The district made the promise to make the money last until 2019.
“We’ve lived up to and past that promise,” Clickenger said.
“Planning for the future seems impossible now. Will we need new money? Yes. Our revenues are keeping up with the general inflation of expenditures,” she said. “The next question is when. I don’t want to delay the question and make a deep hole, but I do know we need to heed to the pandemic right now and keep new money on the radar. Making us look at the future is exactly what this forecast is meant to do.”