Vaccines good, but fight not over, experts say

The novel coronavirus pandemic could wane by spring — but people should not get overconfident right now, whether vaccinated or not, Lorain County’s health chief said.

Health experts agreed safety restrictions and precautions will be lifted as more people get vaccinated against COVID-19.

For now, staying home, washing hands, wearing masks and keeping at least six feet away from others still is good advice, they said.

The Lorain County Community Protection Team met March 16 to discuss the latest news relating to the pandemic

The good news is that Lorain County’s case count is flat and declining, said Lorain County Public Health Commissioner Dave Covell.

“I keep telling people, again, please hang on a little bit longer,” Covell said. “We’re getting closer and closer and closer.

“Don’t blow it now. You’re at mile 25 ½ of a marathon, and don’t trip now.”

March 16 included another clinic to administer 1,100 more vaccines and more mass inoculations will take place this week, Covell said.

He was part of Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine’s talks early March 16 about opening up vaccine access to more people, depending on age, occupation and health conditions.

Covell recounted his own prediction that from January to April, people in highrisk categories will be vaccinated.

Everybody else will get the shots in April to June, he said, and on March 29, Ohio will open the vaccine access to everyone.

“A lot of that has to do with the amount of vaccine,” Covell said. “This was never a capacity issue, it was always a vaccine issue.”

The Johnson & Johnson single-dose vaccine is expected to become available in bulk, Covell said.

That means more people will get the vaccine, he said.

Come the end of April and beginning of May, there will be so much vaccine available, health restrictions likely will lighten up, Covell said.

He predicted in May and June, life may get “really close, back to normal.”

“It really all depends on getting out and getting vaccinated, and that’s the real key,” Covell said. “And if we can do that, we can get back to normal quickly.”

Possible wave?

Covell, with Dr. Rebecca Starck, president of Cleveland Clinic Avon Hospital, and Kristi Sink, president of University Hospitals Elyria Medical Center, shared warnings about a possible surge of new COVID-19 cases.

Avon Mayor Bryan Jensen

noted that many of the most vulnerable people will have their shots by then.

But not everyone will have the doses, Covell said.

Emphasizing vaccines for the most vulnerable and people with co-morbidities is a great strategy, Starck said.

There still are non-vaxxers out there, people who don’t believe in the vaccine, or feel it’s too new, she said.

Vaccination rates also seem to be contagious because people see the safety when others get the shots, Starck said.

The Cleveland Clinic has seen a plateau in the decline of cases, with slight uptick, she said.

This is the “tightrope” time between vaccination and still spreading the disease to those who are vulnerable, Starck said.

There also are scenarios when somebody in their 40s — in theory, with a lower risk due to younger age — gets a very severe infection.

Young people may suffer significant symptoms for reasons still unknown, Starck said.

“It’s all about risk reduction across all ages,” she said.

The United States is not at the herd immunity level that lowers the risk, Starck said.

Predictions about the disease are based on scientific models from academic arenas, Sink said.

To date, University Hospitals has used one that is “remarkably accurate,” she said.

Sink echoed Starck’s comments about continuing the health precautions.

“Don’t assume that we’re finished,” Sink said. “We’re still in this and all the safety measures are still really important, and to the extent that we use them, hopefully, we prove them all wrong.”

Getting one dose of the two-shot Pfizer and Moderna vaccines helps, but Sink and Starck agreed the vaccine program consists of two shots.

“Going through halfway gets you something, but it’s not going to really bring that full benefit that we all want for our community,” Sink said.