Officials: Water levels lower in ’21

Lake Erie water levels lower, but above long term averages

After Lake Erie notched several monthly high water level records in 2019 and 2020, the lake water levels are expected to be lower this year while remaining about above long-term averages.

In 2019, officials recorded a 5-month stretch of monthly mean water level records from May through September. That included an all-time high monthly mean water level set in June, surpassing a record set in 1986. Last year, Lake Erie set monthly mean water level records in February, March, April and again in May.

The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Detroit District Office is forecasting the lake’s April through September water levels to be below the record high levels by 12 to 15 inches.

Lake Erie water levels during that span are still expected to be 15 to 17 inches above monthly longer term average levels.

A March monthly mean water level was 15 inches below its record-setting 2020, according to Army Corps of Engineers data. Lake Erie was 19 inches above its long term average for the month. The average water level on April 9 was 17 inches below its April 9, 2020 level, according to the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers data.

According to the Army Corps of Engineers, the Great Lakes basin was several months of below average precipitation during the winter months. This combined with a cold air outbreak in February led to increased evaporation across the lakes.

“Drier conditions this winter aided in seasonal declines on all the lakes,” Detroit District Watershed Hydrology Branch Chief Chris Warren said in a statement in March. “However, as water levels begin their seasonal rise there is still potential for coastal impacts since water levels remain high.”

The Great Lakes behave differently than smaller, inland lakes, according to the Army Corps of Engineers release.

In general, Great Lakes water levels do not rise and fall with individual storms,” the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers stated. “Significant water level fluctuations require multiple months, seasons, or years of wet or dry conditions.”

Lake Erie and fellow Great Lakes Superior, Michigan-Huron have been above their monthly average levels since at least November 2015.

“Drier conditions this winter aided in seasonal declines on all the lakes.” — Detroit District Watershed Hydrology Branch Chief Chris Warren

COURTESY OF THE U.S. ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS DETROIT DISTRICT OFFICE The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers provided a 6-month water level projection for Lake Erie.