The News Herald (Willoughby, OH)
Kiper lists QB Allen as Browns’ pick in mock draft
Like virtually everyone paid to predict and analyze NFL drafts, Mel Kiper Jr. of ESPN expects the Browns to use the first pick of the 2018 draft on a quarterback.
Unlike most of his peers, who are divided between Sam Darnold of USC and Josh Rosen of UCLA as the best quarterback available, Kiper in his first mock draft of the year has the Browns selecting 6-foot5, 233-pound Josh Allen of Wyoming first overall.
“I went with Allen because he finished strong,” Kiper said Jan. 18 on a conference call. “And he has the physical capability to do the job in the (bad) weather conditions like Ben Roethlisberger (Steelers) and Carson Wentz (Eagles) — quarterbacks he’ll be compared to with that size, arm strength, mobility and competitiveness — for playing in Cleveland, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati and Baltimore every year. That’s the reason I gave him that slight edge over Rosen and Darnold … That’s very fluid. You’re splitting hairs between all three of those guys.
“Rosen was injured (shoulder injury in 2016) and two concussions this year. Durability is a question there. Darnold came in looking like the clear-cut No. 1 pick overall. He struggled. Bad habits were developed. He made some ill-advised throws. Ball security was an issue. That’s why he dropped to the third quarterback on this board.”
The Browns hold picks one, four, 22 and 35. They also have Philadelphia’s second-round pick, but that positioning won’t be determined until the Eagles are eliminated from the playoffs, plus seven more picks in the final five rounds.
Kiper has the Browns taking Saquon Barkley of Penn State with the fourth pick. Barkley is universally regarded as the best running back in the draft. The only question is whether the Colts will take Barkley with the third pick after the Giants presumably take a quarterback second.
“(Barkley) has leg strength, he can balance through traffic — he’s a heck of a player,” Kiper said. “You’re hoping he’s going to be like Leonard Fournette (Jaguars), Ezekiel Elliott (Cowboys) and Todd Gurley (Rams). He can pass block and catch passes very effectively.
“For Cleveland, if you get the quarterback at one and the running back at four, you’re on your way, because that defense is pretty good there.”
The three-day draft beginning April 26 will determine the path the Browns take for years to come. It is unlikely they will have two picks in the top four and four in the top 35 again in the foreseeable future. In other words, they can’t miss on whichever quarterback they choose with the first pick.
Allen threw 28 touchdown passes and 15 interceptions in 2016 while completing 56 percent of his passes. He threw 16 touchdown passes and six interceptions while completing 56.3 percent of his passes in 2017.
A 56.3 completion percentage would have ranked 30th among starting NFL quarterbacks in 2017 facing much tougher competition than Allen saw in the Mountain West Conference. That is not a red flag for Kiper, however.
“You have to look beyond the stats,” Kiper said. “Stats are for losers, in my opinion. When he was out there, they won football games. A lot of guys have stats and can’t get their team over .500. Wyoming lost four key guys to the NFL (in the 2017 draft). Wyoming can’t reload, yet he led them to a bowl game.”
Wyoming beat Central Michigan, 37-14, in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl on Dec. 22. Allen completed 11 of 19 passes for 154 yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions.
“The incompletions (in 2016 and 2017) weren’t all on him,” Kiper said. “They’re a result of bad offensive line play, not having a running game, receivers dropping balls and he had the shoulder injury (forcing him to miss two games.
“I understand that (completion percentage) is a concern. That’s why he’s not lock, stock and barrel No. 1 … He finished strong and the other quarterbacks didn’t.”
Wyoming was 8-3 in games in which Allen started in 2017. He was 7-1 in his last eight starts.
Todd McShay, Kiper’s cohort at ESPN, gave the Browns Darnold in his first mock draft, which hasn’t been updated since Dec. 13.
Chris Trapasso of CBSSports.com has the Browns taking Darnold first overall and Barkley fourth. He has Allen falling to the Redskins with the 13th pick.
Pro Football Focus has the Browns taking quarterback Baker Mayfield of Oklahoma with the first pick.
“Yes, the Oklahoma offense eases his burden compared to his peers, but he’s still shown outstanding accuracy and decision-making, while making enough “NFL throws” that should instill confidence that his game will translate to the next level,” Pro Football Focus wrote in its draft summary. “Mayfield has posted the top PFF grade in each of the last two seasons.”
WalterFootball.com isn’t convinced the Browns will draft a quarterback in the first round. The website has the Browns drafting Barkley first, Alabama cornerback Minkah Fitzpatrick fourth and signing a veteran quarterback such as A.J. McCarron, Kirk Cousins or Alex Smith.