Region projections could have gone better

Every August when it comes around, the task ranks as one of the most daunting among my duties at The NewsHerald.

For nearly 20 years, for our annual high school football preview, I project the top 12 for each playoff region, except 10 in Division I, Region 1 since there are fewer teams there.

As you can imagine, it can be a chore. For one thing, the old saying about how it’s all “on paper” is literally true because no games have taken place and so much is unknown. And if you doubt the wrong team, you’ll be sure to hear about it, as well you should.

Every fall, I do a selfaudit of my playoff projections from August, just to see how it went. I typically will be thrilled to take around a 75 percent success rate, which is the average. So come along with me for another year as I see what was correct and what deserves a side of crow to eat.

We’re obviously a week into the playoffs, but records listed are regular-season only. In some cases, that’s all there was going to be anyway:

Division I, Region 1

Correct (7 of 10): 1. Mentor (9-1), 2. St. Ignatius (7-2), 3. Euclid (8-2), 4. Solon (8-2), 5. Canton McKinley (8-2), 7. St. Edward (7-3), 8. Strongsville (7-3)

Incorrect: 11. Massillon Jackson (6-4), 12. BereaMidpark (5-5), 13. StowMunroe Falls (5-5)

Missed on: 6. Austintown-Fitch (8-2), 9. Medina (5-5), 10. Cleveland Heights (7-3)

Comments: This didn’t go too badly. Mentor performed as expected. I had concern about Euclid cycling in new personnel, but that went fine. You can schedule it with Austintown-Fitch. If I project them to make it, the Falcons won’t. If I don’t, they will.

Division II, Region 5

Correct (9 of 12): 1. Akron Hoban (10-0), 3. Nordonia (9-1), 4. Warren Harding (8-2), 6. Riverside (8-2), 7. Boardman (6-4), 8. Mayfield (5-5), 9. Benedictine (4-6), 10. Twinsburg (55), 12. Brush (4-6)

Incorrect: 19. Hudson (3-7), 22. Bedford (1-9), 25. Brecksville-Broadview Heights (0-10)

Missed on: 2. Maple Heights (10-0), 5. Garfield Heights (10-0), 11. Madison (4-6)

Comments: The misses here were, admittedly, appalling. I still remember Maple Heights being one of my last cuts to the top 12, and Garfield Heights was crossed off early. Kudos to them for great campaigns. Three traditionally strong programs projected above them had awful years. Projecting Warren Harding for a bounceback was the highlight.

Division III, Region 9

Correct (7 of 12): 1. Canfield (9-1), 2. Kenston (9-1), 3. Medina Buckeye (9-1), 4. Chardon (7-3), 7. West Holmes (8-2), 8. Marlington (8-2), 9. Aurora (7-3)

Incorrect: 13. Lake Catholic (7-3), 14. Akron SVSM (7-3), 17. NDCL (73), 20. Geneva (4-6), 21. New Philadelphia (4-6)

Missed on: 5. Akron East (8-2), 6. Alliance (7-3), 10. Ravenna (8-2), 11. Norton (8-2), 12. Revere (6-4)

Comments: The most blatant miss was New Philadelphia, which was projected top four and went 4-6. But I was pleased my deep sleeper panned out – West Holmes, which went 8-2 after a 3-7 campaign last fall. Area-wise, Lake Catholic and NDCL were reasonable guesses and not far off.

Division III, Region 10

Correct (8 of 12): 1. Clyde (7-3), 3. Bay (8-2), 4. Norwalk (7-3), 6. Sandusky (6-4), 8. Rocky River (6-4), 9. Padua (64), 10. Holy Name (5-5), 12. Mansfield (5-5)

Incorrect: 15. John Hay (4-6), 16. University (4-6), 18. Sandusky Perkins (2-8), Glenville (8-2; ineligible)

Missed on: 2. Tiffin Columbian (8-2), 5. Bowling Green (6-4), 7. Lexington (6-4), 11. Toledo Scott (6-4)

Comments: US is the lone area squad in this region, one which is always tough to project. The Glenville issue couldn’t be predicted. Tiffin Columbian was an early cut, so that is a lament.

Division IV, Region 13

Correct (9 of 12): 1. Perry (9-1), 2. Steubenville (9-1), 3. Hubbard (9-1), 5. Girard (9-1), 6. Indian Creek (8-2), 7. Akron Buchtel (6-4), 8. CVCA (7-3), 11. Struthers (7-3), 12. Salem (6-4)

Incorrect: 21. Cardinal Mooney (4-6), 22. Cortland Lakeview (4-6), 24. Ursuline (1-9)

Missed on: 4. Youngstown East (7-3), 9. Woodridge (6-4), 10. Poland Seminary (6-4)

Comments: No one could have messed up the powers in this region, and luckily, I didn’t. Perry, Steubenville and Girard all performed to expectation – although I should have been more bullish on Hubbard. Ursuline was a big miss.

Division IV, Region 14

Correct (7 of 12): 1. Clear Fork (10-0), 2. St. Marys Memorial (9-1), 3. Van Wert (8-2), 4. Clearview (9-1), 5. Marengo Highland (9-1), 9. Kenton (5-5), 10. Bellevue (4-6)

Incorrect: 14. Shelby (55), 15. Chagrin Falls (4-6), 20. Edison (3-6), 23. Vermilion (3-7), 24. Firelands (4-6)

Missed on: 6. Huron (7-3), 7. Orange (7-3), 8. Bryan (7-3), 11. Napoleon (6-4), 12. Port Clinton (6-4)

Comments: Chagrin Falls is our lone area squad here, and this region is perennially challenging for me to predict. I should have had more faith in Orange in a wide-open year in the CVC Chagrin beyond Perry. Edison was a really bad swing-and-miss, projected for home field and going 3-6.

Division V, Region 17

Correct (8 of 12): 1. Orrville (8-2), 2. Akron Manchester (7-3), 3. LaBrae (91), 4. Gilmour (10-0), 5. Columbiana Crestview (63), 6. Wickliffe (8-2), 10. Doylestown Chippewa (64), 12. Black River (6-4)

Incorrect: 13. Grand Valley (7-3), 14. South Range (4-6), 15. Canton Central Catholic (4-6), 18. East Palestine (5-5)

Missed on: 7. Sandy Valley (9-1), 8. Massillon Tuslaw (6-4), 9. Garrettsville (6-4), 11. Beachwood (6-4)

Comments: Really shouldn’t have bothered with home-field prognostication – East Palestine especially came back to haunt me. Sandy Valley was considered, but clearly not enough.

Division VI, Region 21

Correct (9 of 12): 1. Mogadore (9-1), 2. Kirtland (10-0), 5. McDonald (10-0), 7. Steubenville Catholic Central (7-3), 8. Columbia (7-3), 9. Sugarcreek Garaway (8-2), 9. New Middletown Springfield (9-1), 11. Hanoverton United (8-2), 12. Berlin Center Western Reserve (8-2)

Incorrect: 13. Columbiana (6-4), 22. Smithville (1-9), 23. Mineral Ridge (2-8)

Missed on: 3. Creston Norwayne (9-1), 4. Rootstown (9-1), 7. Salineville Southern (7-3)

Comments: The biggest win here was projecting Steubenville Catholic Central as a contender. Creston Norwayne was a huge miss, as was Smithville the other way.

Division VII, Region 25

Correct (8 of 12): 1. Cuyahoga Heights (8-2), 2. Windham (9-1), 4. East Canton (7-3), 5. St. John (7-3), 6. Valley Christian (5-5), 7. Warren JFK (5-5), 9. Southington (6-4), 11. Toronto (4-6)

Incorrect: 13. Plymouth (4-6), 16. David Anderson (3-7), 21. Lowellville (37), 25. Strasburg-Franklin (1-9)

Missed on: 3. Mapleton (7-3), 8. Tuscarawas Central Catholic (5-5), 10. Leetonia (4-6), 12. Richmond Heights (4-6)

Comments: Ecstatic to go 3-for-4 with home field with Cuyahoga Heights, Windham and East Canton. I don’t feel too badly about Mapleton, because Plymouth beat the Mounties, 63-33, in Week 8. David Anderson was a dart that missed the board entirely.

TOTAL: 72 of 106 (67.9 percent)

So, 2018 was below average.

But amid an impossible task, it will do just fine.

Reach Lillstrung at CLillstrung@NewsHerald.com. On Twitter: @clillstrungNH