Winter is coming to region

Outlook: Drier season, less snowfall, colder second half expected, experts report

“Prepare your homes and vehicles now, it’s the perfect time for all of us.”

Winter may not officially begin until Dec. 21, but as is the case most years, the Northeast Ohio region is already experiencing signs that autumn is quickly slipping away, with colder days and nights rapidly becoming commonplace.

The good news, however, is that residents can look forward to a milder winter, with less than the average area snowfall of about 70 inches, and warmer temperatures, about 30 degrees and slightly above — at least until mid- to lateJanuary.

According to Long-range AccuWeather Meteorologist Max Vido, who is based out of State College, Pennsylvania, the 2018-2019 winter season will be oddly similar to last year’s.

“It’s going to be an interesting winter in Northeast Ohio, because we’re not seeing a ton of cold air, or Arctic intrusions,

into December and the early part of January,” he said. “A lot of that (air) is generated by lake-effect snow, which can be unpredictable, but as of now, we’re not anticipating it as a major factor.

“East of Northeast Ohio into Western New York and Northwestern Pennsylvania, we see higher elevation and an increase in uplift bands, so those regions usually receive more lake-effect snow. Those pushes of extremely cold air, we won’t see in the region

until late January. Unlike last year, where the temperatures spiked into the 70s in February, we won’t see any such anomalies this year. In fact, it’s going to be much colder; keep in mind that winter doesn’t end in January.”

While a larger Arctic intrusion will sweep the area after January, an overall drier winter is in store, Vido added, especially to the east.

With a seasonal outlook predicting drier, and later, colder weather with about 50 to 55 inches of snowfall, embracing the basics for safety remains essential.

“It seems silly to have to remind people of elemental factors to stay warm and safe, but be sure to have your homes properly heated,” Vido said. “Have batteries and other supplies stocked, especially later. We may not get great big snow events with the wrap-around snow affecting the main corridor from a geographical standpoint in the Great Lakes region, but that doesn’t mean we should ignore or neglect basic safety provisions.”

Backing up AccuWeather’s forecast is the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, based in Washington, D.C., whose annual outlook released last week also indicates a 70-75 percent chance of El Nino forming over the next couple of months and lasting through the winter, meaning a mild start before colder weather sets in.

According to NOAA, El Nino is an ocean-atmosphere climate interaction that is linked to periodic warming in sea surface temperatures in central

and eastern Pacific equator.

And Ohio experienced winter-like weather in October, with freezing temperatures, frost and in northern counties, snow.

Like Vido, Ohio Emergency Management Agency Executive Director Sima Merick wants people to remember that winter safety

isn’t just being prepared for the cold, snow and ice.

“In February of this year, 22 counties received a federal disaster declaration for flooding, so, prepare for severe weather now, before winter officially begins,” she said. “Prepare your homes and vehicles now, it’s the perfect time for all of us.”