Analyzing the records as playoffs expand

Taking a look at the performance of numbers 9-12 as playoff qualifiers go from eight to 12.

The Ohio High School Athletic Association announcing May 20 it was expanding football playoff qualifiers from eight to 12 in each region generated debate as far as what teams would benefit from a won-lost standpoint.

In order to truly decipher a pattern in that regard, there’s only one way to find out.

An analysis was performed of won-lost records for Nos. 9-12 teams in each Ohio playoff region since 2000. That process of scrutinizing 1,980 teams’ records in this manner was made significantly easier by the venerable JoeEitel.com.

The years during which Division I had two “super regions” in 2013, 2014 and 2015 were not included since there were more than eight playoff qualifiers in those regions, and D-IV, Region 16 information from 2005 was not available.

Several factors, including strength of schedule and region, have obviously played a role in vying for the top eight over the seasons analyzed. But purely on wonlost record, here is what the numbers showed:

The record with the largest number of Nos. 9-12 finishers in their region was 6-4, which occurred 632 times over the last 20 seasons, or 31.9% of the total.

Had the expansion to 12 been in place during this timespan, exactly 25% would have made the playoffs at 5-5 or worse, of which 18.6% were 5-5 teams.

Teams who were 7-3 across all divisions were in that Nos. 9-12 range 557 times, or 28.1%.

There have been 251 instances since 2000 of a team with an 8-1, 8-2, 9-1 or 10-0 regular season not cracking the top eight, but placing in the top 12 of their respective regions.

Three times in the last 20 seasons, a 10-0 team has not qualified for Week 11 — twice in 2019 with Gibsonburg (Region 23) and Northwood (Region 18) and in 2001 with Newcomerstown (Region 15).

Northwood, which finished ninth in its D-V region, had an opponents’ combined record of 3467, including two winning teams, playoff qualifier Edon (7-4) and Ottawa Hills (6-4). Gibsonburg, ninth in its D-VI region, had an opponents’ combined record of 33-66, including one playoff qualifier (Mohawk).

The 2001 Newcomerstown team had almost no second-level assistance and a brutal region in addition. That year in Region 15, the top eight had six 9-1s and two 10-0s, and the top 16 all had at least seven wins. Newcomerstown defeated two Week 11 qualifiers (Malvern and Strasburg-Franklin) but six victories against squads that were 2-8 or worse.

Last fall, the only 9-1 team to not get to Week 11 in Ohio from a Nos. 9-12 perch was Conneaut, eyeing its first playoff berth since 1985. Unfortunately for the Spartans, who were 10th in D-V, Region 17, there was virtually no secondlevel help, as the nine teams they defeated combined for 20 wins.

One noteworthy trend was how much more often teams with a losing record have made it into the top 12 of their regions in recent years, coinciding with divisions expanding from six to seven.

From 2000-12, 45 teams combined who finished under .500 were in a Nos. 9-12 spot to finish the fall in their region. In 2009, no team with a losing record finished ninth, 10th, 11th or 12th in their region, with one in 2007.

In the last seven seasons alone, that number has nearly doubled to 83, including a high of 16 with losing records in 2018.

There have been 14 teams who have finished 3-6 or worse since 2000 who would have qualified for Week 11 under the newly unveiled playoff expansion.

The 12 3-7s in that group includes Lake Catholic, which would have qualified for the playoffs at 3-7 in 2013 and 2014 amid seasons in Region 8.

The two instances when a 3-7 team would have made it in a D-I region occurred in 2016 with Elyria in Region 2 and Gahanna Lincoln in Region 3 in 2019.

The 2013 campaign in Region 8 also included the one instance of a 2-8 team since 2000 which would have advanced to postseason competition with expansion. That season, Cloverleaf started 2-1 with victories over eventual playoff qualifiers Keystone and Medina Buckeye and ended on a seven-game losing skid. But the Colts would have made the playoffs anyway in 12th under an expanded system.

The most competitive year for playoff spots, as far as teams with a winning record as the metric, was 2006, when 83 teams were on the outside looking in at the top eight from a Nos. 9-12 slot.

Some regions were especially unforgiving.

In 2018 in D-VI, Region 21 and in 2014 in D-V, Region 20, one 9-1 team and three 8-2s didn’t qualify. In Region 7 in 2009, two 9-1 teams (New Philadelphia and Athens) didn’t break the top 10 in Nos. 11 and 12. The same was the case in Region 4 in 2004, with Northmont and Lakota East at 9-1 but out. Four 7-3s didn’t make it in Region 1 in 2015.

So ultimately, if the last 20 seasons are indicative, on average three out of every four teams in a Nos. 9-12 spot in all regions could have a winning record.

But there will be outliers, as the debate likely rages on.