Overseas voters could tilt election

U.S. citizens who live abroad are a largely untapped voter pool big enough to decide the presidency.

In the 2000 contested presidential election, Republican candidate George W. Bush’s campaign relied on 680 overseas military ballots to tilt Florida in Bush’s favor.

Just under 5 million U.S. citizens live abroad, serving in the military and embassies or just living in another country. In 2018 an estimated 2.9 million of them were of voting age, according to a 2018 Federal Voting Assistance Program report – more than the population of Rhode Island, Delaware and Wyoming combined.

As a political scientist who studies demographics and politics, I have observed how different voting blocs, even small ones, can affect the outcome of elections. Three million people is more than enough people to decide a presidential or congressional race with narrow margins.

To do that, though, Americans who live abroad would have to actually vote.

Generally, U.S. citizens abroad may vote in presidential, Senate and House races, though some states also allow them to vote for state and local candidates, and on referendums.

Absentee voting overseas is a relatively straightforward process. Ballots can be requested, transmitted and returned by mail, email or fax, depending on one’s state and registration status.

After identifying themselves as overseas voters from a particular state, U.S. citizens living abroad must complete and submit a Federal Post Card Application each year to their local election officials, who then confirm voter eligibility. The Foreign Voter Assistance Program website can help overseas voters determine which state they are eligible to vote in and request their ballot.

For members of the military, voter residency is usually in the state that they consider to be their permanent home and where they previously had a physical presence. For overseas sites aimed at overseas memcivilians, like embassy staffers, bers, but only the Democrats’ voting residence is the address site, www.democratsabroad.org, in the state they lived in behad up-to-date voting in forfore leaving the United States. mation as of late October. ReAmericans who have never publicans turning to the GOP lived in the U.S. often register site, www.republicansoverseas. to vote under the American adcom, will find more criticism of dress of their parents or legal the Foreign Account Tax Comguardians. pliance Act than about voting

Each state has its own rules from abroad. With the 2020 on registering to vote from election days away, its voting overseas; some are more flexible information does not appear than others. updated.

Americans overseas who regIf political parties mobilized istered to vote and requested these far-flung voters – by entheir ballot but did not receive gaging them on issues, for exit in time can still vote using a ample, and including them in federal write-in absentee ballot. voter turnout efforts – such vot

The voting rights of overers could be a potent electoral seas voters were enshrined in force.

1986 with the Uniformed and Overseas voters tend to have Overseas Citizens Absentee Votoverall higher levels of educaing Act. In 2010 the Military tion relative to the domestic and Overseas Voter Empowervoters, according to the Foreign ment Act further codified interVoter Assistance Program renational absentee voting proceport – 67% have bachelor’s dedures and added additional segrees, compared with 32% of curity and privacy protections. domestic voters. They also skew

Yet most Americans choose male – 67% are men, compared not to vote from abroad. with 49% of domestic voters.

In the 2018 midterm election, That demographic informa289,838 U.S. citizens overseas tion does not offer much insight requested ballots and 135,507 into the political leanings of of those ballots were returned, overseas voters. On one hand, a turnout rate of 4.7% among Americans with higher educ aall eligible American voters tion levels tend to lean Demoabroad. Overall voter turnout cratic. On the other hand, the that year was about 65% – 14 Republican Party attracts more timesmen. higher. Just under 8%of overseas voters participated in While their party affiliation the 2016 presidential election. is unknown, by number alone

The participation of Amerioverseas voters could tip a tight can voters abroad varies widely election one way or the other. by the country they live in. This is especially true in swing

Surveys of overseas votstates that, like Virginia and ers identify obstacles to votNorth Carolina, have a large ing, among them international military presence. mailing-related problems such This November, as in 2016, as late ballots, privacy concerns just a couple thousand votes in over internet security and lack such places could decide the of knowledge about online votpresidency. Several neck-anding. Overseas citizens also reneck Senate and House races port feeling disconnected from – including ones in Texas and the American political process. Georgia – will also likely be

Military voters receive elecwon with very narrow margins. tion help from the Pentagon. The votes of Americans Each unit must have an officer abroad have a role to play in available to help service memthe democratic process. And if bers with voting. U.S. State Demore than 5% cast their ballots, partment staffers on overseas it could be a decisive one. postings often have access to voter education seminars or registration drives at embassies.

But regular Americans living abroad are pretty much on their own.

There are party-related web---