Starters will carry Guards to Central title

The American League Central Division is like an oasis in the desert, like the island on which Tom Hanks found himself in the movie “Cast Away” — a good place to be in times of trouble. The A.L. Central isn’t quite the safe haven it was before 2023 when MLB decided each team should play all 29 other teams each season, thereby reducing the number of intra division games from 19 to 13 for each division opponent, but it is still the easiest of the six divisions to win. That is why the Guardians will be division champions once again.

Oddsmakers do not agree with this assessment. Fanduel.com is so convinced Minnesota will repeat as champions that it has set the Twins at -130, meaning someone betting on the Twins would have to wager $130 to win $100 and recoup his or her $130.

The Guardians are +320, the Tigers +380, the Royals +950 and the White Sox +6,500 to win the division according to Fanduel. A successful $100 bet on the White Sox would garner a $6,500 windfall plus the original $100 bet.

The only team in either league with steeper odds than the White Sox are the Oakland A’s at +25,000. The Washington Nationals at +12,000 are the biggest underdogs in the National League.

I am riding with the Guardians because their starting pitching is the best in the division and because I don’t expect Emmanuel Clase to lead the Majors in blown saves like he did last season. Clase led both leagues with 44 saves, but he also blew 12 save opportunities.

The Guardians propped up the back end of their bullpen by acquiring Scott Barlow in a trade with the Padres. Barlow saved 24 games for the Royals in 2022. Relief pitcher Trevor Stephan, who appeared in 71 games for the Guardians last season, is out for the year with a right elbow injury.

Barlow will have to take on some of Stephan’s innings. Hunter Gaddis, who spot-started nine games in two seasons with the Guardians and started 68 games in four minor-league seasons, might have found his niche as a reliever in spring training this year. He pitched in nine Cactus League games, all in relief, and struck out 17 batters in 11 2/3 innings.

James Karinchak reported to spring training with right-shoulder fatigue, so he isn’t ready to start the season on the 26man active list. On that note, shoulder fatigue in August seems much easier to understand than shoulder fatigue in February, but Karinchak has always followed the beat of his own drum. Sam Hentges is dealing with a sore finger that is delaying his availability.

The bullpen — even more than a lack of offensive production — could be the Guardians’ downfall.

Shane Bieber and Triston McKenzie combined won just six games last season because both righthanded starters were waylaid by injuries. They are capable of winning 25 to 30 games together if they stay healthy, assuming the Guardians hang on to Bieber beyond the Aug. 1 trade deadline.

Tanner Bibee, another right-handed starter, led the Guardians with 10 victories last year. It isn’t a pipe dream to expect him to exceed that total. Logan Allen should be better in his second season.

The Twins — the 2023 Central Division champs — lost starting pitchers Sonny Gray and Kenta Maeda in free agency. Gray, now on the St. Louis pitching staff, was 8-8 with the Twins last season. Maeda, now with the Tigers, was 6-8 with the Twins.

The prediction of the Guardians winning the Central is based on Jose Ramirez, Josh Naylor, Bo Naylor, Steven Kwan and Andres Gimenez staying healthy for most of the season. A full season of Ramon Laureano in right field would be a boost to the offense.

The Guardians aren’t going to outscore opponents 9-8 very often. That’s a given. But if the bullpen comes through, Stephen Vogt will be a candidate for Manager of the Year in his first season in the Cleveland dugout because very few outside observers believe the Guardians can be division champions.