Betting breakdown for NFC Wild Card match up
The Eagles and Buccaneers meet Monday night in the final game of Super Wild Card Weekend at Raymond James Stadium.
Philadelphia comes in as cold as can be as it dropped five of its previous six games following a red-hot 10-1 start to the season.
The Bucs are the complete opposite, as they’ve won five of their last six to claim their third straight NFC South title.
These two teams also met in the wild card round in 2021 when Tom Brady and the Bucs defeated rookie QB Jalen Hurts and the Eagles, 31-15, in Tampa Bay.
Can Philadelphia snap out of its slump to advance to the divisional round, or will the Bucs pull off the upset at home?
Here’s our betting breakdown on the spread, total and moneyline for Monday night:
Eagles vs. Buccaneers spread: Eagles -3 (-102), Buccaneers +3 (-110)
The Eagles are a favorite for a fourth consecutive week.
However, that hasn’t translated into any success recently.
Philadelphia is 2-6-2 against the spread (ATS) over its last 10 games, and more importantly, hasn’t covered in a single game since Week 11.
Tampa Bay comes into this matchup tied for the second-best ATS record in the regular season but has covered in just three of eight games at home this season.
Even if the Eagles were a one-point favorite, it’s tough to have any faith in this team that continuously underwhelmed throughout the second half of the season and not being able to cover consistently as favorites.
I’m all over the Buccaneers to cover this one as a field goal home underdog.
Nearly all sportsbooks have the Bucs +3 with a price of -110 (Bet $110 to win $100).
Prediction: Buccaneers +3
Eagles vs. Buccaneers total: Over 43.5 points (-110), Under 44 points (-110)
There’s a big discrepancy in total this week as two games (Packers-Cowboys and Rams-Lions) have a total of 50 or more points, while the rest of the matchups are 44 points or fewer.
Neither one of the teams have been great to the over this season.
And yet, I’d still bet on this one having 44 or more points.
Both the Buccaneers and Eagles’ defenses rank 20th or worse in yards, yards per play, passing yards and more this year.
Philly’s defense has surrendered 25+ points in three straight games and in six of their previous seven.
Tampa Bay’s numbers have improved to close out the season, but it also played two of the worst offenses in the NFL in the Panthers (twice) and Saints over the past six weeks.
Both teams should be able to hit 20 points in this one and would therefore take the over at such a mediocre number for this game.
BetMGM and PointsBet are the only sportsbooks that have this over/under at 43.5 points with the cheapest price of -110.
If you also believe this total will hit the over, I’d wager on the over now as most sportsbooks have already moved this total to 44 points.
Prediction: Over 43.5 points
Eagles vs. Buccaneers moneyline: Eagles (-155), Buccaneers (+135)
There’s no denying all the pressure here is on Philly.
The reigning NFC champions are road favorites and in the midst of their worst stretch in quite some time.
As they did against the Giants and Cardinals the last couple weeks, the Eagles should be able to move the ball effectively and put up points here.
The Buccaneers have also struggled on offense, scoring just 22 points over their final two games to end the season.
However, you can make the argument that the Bucs are facing the worst defense they’ve seen recently.
Hurts and WR A.J. Brown are both dealing with their own respective injuries and have not been on the same page in recent weeks.
To me, it comes down to what can you trust more: the Eagles or Buccaneers defense?
Right now, I give the slight edge to Tampa Bay as it pulls off the upset as home underdogs over the reigning NFC champs, advancing to the divisional round for the third time in four years.
All sportsbooks have the Bucs as an underdog on Monday night, but BetMGM currently has the best value with the longest odds at +135 to win against the Birds.