Enrollment ‘enigma’ troubles board of ed

By Peter Yankowski

RIDGEFIELD — The town’s nine public schools are reporting 4,628 students enrolled this year — 137 fewer than the 4,765 that were enrolled during the 201819 school year, and significantly fewer than the district’s enrollment projections suggested.

The district projected 67 more students would enroll for the 201920 school year than actually did, according to a report that was presented to the Board of Education on Aug. 26.

Elementary schools saw the biggest gap between the district projections and the actual number of students who showed up to the first day of school, with 47 fewer students than projected.

“What struck me is this year Barlow Mountain continued to be something of an enigma,” said school board chairwoman Margaret Stamatis. “... That seems tobetheonewiththemost fluctuation — or hardest to predict, I should say.”

The numbers of students reported at the Aug. 26 school board meeting are not the “official” numbers.

“[The Aug. 26 numbers] can’t really be compared to the Oct. 1 enrollment numbers that get reported to the state and which [demographers] Milone and Macbroom use in their projections enrollment report,” Stamatis said. “For instance, the numbers reported on Aug. 26 were pulled on Aug. 23, which is a week before school even starts. There can be quite a bit of movement those first few weeks of school before Oct. 1 — influx and outflux, so it’s not a true comparison.”

Elementary schools

Thirtytwo fewer students enrolled than the district projected at Barlow Mountain Elementary School, according to the report — the largest gap between projected and actual enrollments in any of the six elementary schools. The enrollment gap was especially felt by the school’s first grade class, where 18 fewer students enrolled than were projected.

But last year, Barlow Mountain took in 39 more students than the district projected. Three additional teachers were hired, and membersoftheBoardof Finance speculated schools might need to redraw the district lines that decide what neighborhoods go to which elementary schools. The idea was roundly rejected by the school board without a vote.

Stamatis pointed to the “surprise” increase at Barlow Mountain that Milone and Macbroom, the demographic consultant set to give the board an official enrollment presentation in November, did not foresee.

“It was not matched to a birth or home sale, and they surmised it could be due to rentals,” she said. “I believe M&M said that they are going to try to factor in rentals as part of their analysis for projections. It is curious that it is that same cohort of students (last year’s kindergartners and this year’s first graders) thatarethelion’sshareof the dramatic swings at Barlow.”

The school board chairwoman also highlighted that the RISE program moved from Barlow to Farmingville this year.

“I don’t believe that change fully explains the shift,” she said. “I think we’ll try to get a better understanding of potential reasons at the November presentation.”

The Aug. 26 numbers do not include students from Ridgefield who go to schools offsite, students in the district’s programs for 1821yearold adults, and prekindergarten students.

They are also an unofficial tally of students — the official numbers must be reported to the state by Oct. 1, said Personnel Director Karen Dewing.

Redistricting middle schools

While elementary schools saw the largest gap in their projections, middle schools actually saw the biggest drop in enrollment from this time last year. This year saw 78 fewer students enroll in the town’s two middle schools, 16 fewer students than the district projected.

Overall enrollment was down for the two schools, but Dewing pointed out that the district has completed its redistricting to even out the population of students going to each middle school. “There are three full grades that have now been redistricted and you’ll see that the enrollment is almost identical,” said Dewing.

East Ridge Middle School enrolled 562 students — 16 students under the projection, and Scotts Ridge Middle School enrolled 561, the number projected by the district.