Pandemic will have lasting effect on voting process
A pandemic coinciding in a presidential election year is shining a spotlight on our national election processes – attention that will influence the nature of elections both this year and in the future.
As the first coronavirus bill was debated in Congress, President Donald Trump criticized support for election reform, claiming, “If you’d ever agreed to it, you’d never have a Republican elected in this country again.” But his analysis is incorrect. Election data indicates mail-in voting favors neither major party. And as an increasing number of election officials see this for themselves this year, expansion of mail-in voting is likely in the postpandemic landscape.
Wisconsin’s April primary raised an eerie specter of future elections as Republican and Democratic officials fought over voting procedures while voters and poll workers risked their health out of civic responsibility. At first glance, Wisconsin seems like evidence for the president’s conclusion. The mail-in ballots overwhelmingly supported a liberal candidate for the Wisconsin Supreme Court, leading to an unexpected defeat of the conservative incumbent.
But that election was an exception to the rule because while Republican leaders trumpeted the “coronavirus is no threat” refrain being disseminated by conservative news media, state Democratic leaders focused on educating voters about requesting and completing a mail-in ballot. By the time of the primary, both Republicans and Democrats feared exposure to the virus. But only Democrats had a safe way to participate.
Historically, mail-in voting has not been a partisan issue. Oregon’s first-in-the-nation implementation of vote-bymail was handled by Republican secretaries of the state. The states with the highest percentage of mail-in ballots include Utah, Arizona and Montana—all red states. Conversely, Connecticut and New York, both blue states, are among those with the lowest levels of mail-in ballots. As both red and blue states have adopted policies expanding access to voting by either mail-in voting, early voting or easier access to absentee voting, voters of all stripes have participated in increasing numbers — because access to voting is not a partisan issue, it is an American issue.
Increased access to voting is a 21st century phenomenon. Nationwide, the numbers of individuals who voted early, submitted absentee ballots and voted by mail all doubled between 2004 and 2016. For 16 states, those types of voting accounted for more than half of ballots. And states that have adopted vote-by-mail systems have increased turnout by an average of 5 percent.
This is a trend the coronavirus will accelerate with effects long after the 2020 elections. The logistics involved in adopting a universal vote-bymail system are too complex for states to implement before November. But to avoid the fate of Wisconsin Republicans, states will respond to voters’ health concerns by adapting their current election system.
At a minimum, they will increase access to absentee ballots by accepting the threat of COVID-19 as a justification for an absentee ballot. While such adaptations will necessarily be temporary, in the long run they will pave the way to a permanent expansion as more elected officials see that access to voting is not a partisan issue.