Will New Yorkers stay after pandemic?

Connecticut elected officials and real estate agents have said the out-migration of New Yorkers since the start of the coronavirus pandemic has led to an uptick in the state’s previously lagging market.

But questions persist. Will the trend continue throughout the pandemic or when the pandemic is over? And what will it mean for New York City’s market?

Steven James, president and CEO of Douglas Elliman’s New York City branch, has observed much of the exodus from his second home in Washington, Conn., where he’s been since the early days of the virus in the city. From his home in the Litchfield Hills, about two

hours drive north of the city, he’s observed the mass departure.

“What we’ve seen is, there’s an enormous amount of talk about people fleeing the city and I think it’s fairly accurate,” James said. “I think a lot of people took the escape route. Many to the Hamptons, but also a lot of New Yorkers have second homes everywhere. In Connecticut, the Hamptons, New Jersey, or even further out.”

Decreasing interest rates on mortgages in roughly the last decade put many New Yorkers in a situation where a second home was feasible, James said. When the pandemic hit, at least some of the city’s most affluent residents had a built-in escape plan.

“Something we’ve certainly seen is more affluent neighborhoods in Manhattan that are relatively empty,” said Jeff Behler, New York regional director for the U.S. Census Bureau.

According to Behler, self-response rates in certain neighborhoods have lagged behind other parts of the city, which he attributes to people clearing out because of the virus.

“Some of the self-response rates, like on the eastern side of Manhattan, for instance hardly any have responded,” Behler said. “That’s because most have left,”

United States Postal Service data showed that nearly 10,000 New Yorkers changed their addresses to Connecticut ZIP codes during the first three months of the pandemic, when New York was the American epicenter. During the same period in 2019, there were just 1,200 requests.

For others who made a short-term move out of the city in recent months — James and other agents said both rentals and sales have spiked in places like Connecticut — a return to the city in a post-pandemic world — whenever that might be — is not a sure thing.

“As people rent in these areas, whether it’s Connecticut or the Hamptons, they discover these are pretty nice places to live,” James said. “They think, ‘I’m renting now, but maybe I’ll look to see about buying.”

Michael Fitzgibbon, a colleague of James’ and manager of Elliman’s Katonah office, said he’s witnessed the switch from a buyers to a sellers market since the pandemic hit. In Westchester County, he said he’d seen people coming from the city renting or buying properties sight-unseen. And with more buyers than there is inventory, it’s regular to have multiple bids on a property.

“We’re getting a lot of people from Manhattan and a lot of people from Brooklyn. Those are the two primary boroughs,” Fitzgibbon said. “A lot of people aren’t really talking about pandemic exactly. It’s really more a matter of them looking to be outside, expand, get away from higher density areas. They’re not directly mentioning it, but they’re kind of alluding to it.”

More space is a a big concern, James and Fitzgibbon agreed. So are schools. James said he’d heard anecdotally of New Yorkers who enrolled their children both in local Connecticut schools and their private New York City schools for the fall. As school approaches and the pandemic drags on, they’ll make their decision.

Cost is also a factor. Craig Oshrin, an agent with Coldwell Banker in Fairfield, said he’d spoken to many buyers looking for more bang for their buck in Connecticut, compared to New York City.

“We’re getting a lot of super motivated buyers,” said Craig Oshrin, an agent with Coldwell Banker in Fairfield. “I think one of the things we offer, and as much as people in our state complain about taxation, go to New York City, or Westchester County, and it’s very expensive. It’s sometimes double or triple almost the property taxes here.”

But, for all the advantages provided by the suburbs, at least James believes New York City will make a comeback, as it has in the past.

“A lot of this happened after Sept. 11,” James said. “People got scared and left, and rightly so. But if you look at the data, most of those people came back and came back very quickly. This is a very different thing, but this pandemic is worldwide. There are very few places you can flee to to avoid it. So everybody’s in the same boat. I think hysteria and emotionalism will calm down. Even if we don’t get to a vaccine, as we get further and further away, people will adjust and calm down.”