Delta variant could pose new challenges
When hundreds of thousands of children went back to school last August and September, the COVID pandemic that sent them home the previous spring had reached a low point.
Daily infections were minimal, hospitalizations had ample capacity and new deaths from the virus had slowed. They had to mask up, and in some cases, alternate days in school and at home, but they were offered an opportunity to see their teachers and classmates in person — crucial, many said, to helping them properly learn and engage.
Now they head back to the classroom full-time after entering a summer break that had started with new pandemic lows
before the highly infectious delta variant upended the calm. In recent weeks, infections have reached highs not seen since April and Connecticut hospitals have more COVID patients than they did in early May.
“There’s the delta variant, the numbers are up and they are higher than they were this time last year, there’s no question about that,” said Fran Rabinowitz, head of the Connecticut Association for Public School Superintendents. “But I also believe that we have many more powerful, very powerful, weapons against those numbers as well, namely vaccinations. That’s a huge difference from where we were last year.”
The majority of those 12 and up will likely be vaccinated. And teachers, often in age groups more vulnerable to the effects of COVID-19, are being required by the state to get shots — driving up the numbers for a group that is already overwhelmingly vaccinated.
The latest state Department of Public Health data shows 62 percent of children age 12 to 15 and 74 percent of children age 16 to 17 have been vaccinated, a sizable increase from the end of June.
However, concern over the spread of the virus remains high. After weeks of watching the delta variant drive up infections in Connecticut, Gov. Ned Lamont said all students and school staff will be required to wear masks when they return. And officials are watching the situation closely to ensure students and school staff are safe.
“We’ve made some progress, but we are also dealing with this variant that we didn’t have last year that we know is much more infectious. How those opposing forces play out. …. what ultimately wins out, we are going to have to wait and see. I don’t think anyone knows,” said Dr. Gerald Rakos, department chair for pediatrics at Stamford Health.
Downturn vs. uptick
Key metrics that have informed decisions both statewide and locally have taken a different turn as students head to school this year. Entering school last fall, the numbers were at a low point from the initial surge, but now they have crept back up through the late summer.
The seven-day average positivity rate was below 1 percent in late August 2020. Hospitalizations were steadily between 45 and 60 patients. And fewer than a dozen deaths were recorded each week. At this point, the numbers had steadily dropped from the springtime highs when COVID first hit.
This year, the average positivity rate has hung near 3.5 percent in late August. Hospitalizations are among the highest since early May with more than 350 patients statewide. But deaths remain relatively similar, largely due to vaccination efforts. Those metrics, closely watched by state and local officials, have been on the rise since a low this June.
“The only thing that is different, and I don’t mean to minimize it, but it’s more dangerous because we have a more dangerous strain,” said Dr. Ulysses Wu, chief epidemiologist for Hartford HealthCare.
In late August and early September of last year, little was discussed publicly about mutations in the virus that would create more infectious variants.
It would be months before concerns were raised in Connecticut over the alpha variant, which reports show was first discovered in November in the U.K. Researchers learned that it was 50 percent more infectious than the native strain of the virus that started the pandemic, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
By the spring of the last school year, alpha had become the dominant strain in Connecticut, reports from a cooperative research effort between Yale School of Public Health, the Department of Public Health and Jackson Laboratories shows.
It was not until spring that the delta strain, believed to be 60 percent more infectious than the alpha variant, was first discovered in India. And researchers in Connecticut did not discover it was the dominant strain until July, when students were already home for the summer.
With the delta variant, cases in general have risen, including those involving children. State statistics have shown a recent uptick in cases involving children from birth to age 19, while last year cases jumped more significantly among older age groups — many of whom are now vaccinated.
“It’s delta, we are seeing many more pediatric hospitalizations, cases and deaths. Connecticut is probably still doing OK, but across the country, it’s way up as compared to last year,” Wu said.
Nationwide, Rakos said cases involving children have increased from 38,000 per week in late July to more than 140,000 cases last week.
“Kids definitely don’t get as sick as adults, but there have
been multiple cases of kids getting very sick, needing hospitalizations and dying,” he said.
Controlling the spread
When students returned to the classrooms last fall, strategies to stem the spread of the virus were untested in a school environment that previously did not lend as well to heading off respiratory diseases.
But now a year later, school administrators have weathered the bumps and the state’s education department has homed in on the core strategies, outlined in a nine-page document released ahead of the new school year.
“I think we have a whole year and a half of experience now and I do believe we are in much better shape. We are much more experienced at it than we were at this time last year. We really know the mitigating strategies. We really know the high-leverage mitigating strategies that will make a difference,” said Rabinowitz, a former longtime educator and superintendent.
Central to the strategy to limit the spread of the virus again appears to be masks, a tool endorsed by education leaders and teachers that will remain at least for the first month. Lamont, after weeks of indecision, decided this month he would keep in place two orders that require masks to be worn in schools.
“We have been working hard to ensure a safe, in-person learning experience for students starting out the school year. That’s been the priority of the governor since the pandemic began, and I know the priority for a lot of families, parents and educators as well. We will keep watching the numbers and adjust the mitigation strategies as conditions merit,” Dr. Deidre Gifford, the acting DPH commissioner, said last week.
But the future of masks in schools remains uncertain as Lamont’s emergency powers are set to expire Sept. 30. At a forum last week in Cheshire, Gifford said they are monitoring closely what has happened in school districts around the country that have already opened classrooms.
“We’re seeing that in schools where masks were not required at the beginning of the school year, and there was lots of COVID in the community, we’ve seen very significant disruptions to in-person learning,” she said.
The state’s priority remains to keep kids in the classroom, and Gifford said they will adjust strategies as the situation with cases in schools merit.
This school year, districts also have a robust vaccine program that has already reached a sizable majority of teachers, staff and students ages 12 and up.
While teachers were prioritized early in the vaccine program, school-aged children were among the last eligible, given that the vaccine had not been approved for their use until the end of the last school year.
“It will definitely have an impact . ... We are still going to have high numbers [of cases], but they are not going to be as high as they should be … it’s going to take us from a potentially astronomic amount to a significant amount,” Wu said.
Still, federal restrictions on the vaccine means a core group of children, those in kindergarten up to some sixth-graders, won’t be vaccinated.
While trials are underway for younger age groups, including those age 5 to 11, there are no plans for if or when those children may be eligible for a vaccine. Rakos said approval may not come until the end of the year.
Wu said for these children, the risk of attending school may be no different than last year.
“From a pure, ‘I am a child in school and can’t get vaccinated,’ it’s no different than last year if only more dangerous,” Wu said.