An election scenario like no other is possible
At 11 p.m. on election night, 1 million Connecticut ballots have been counted and Donald Trump, with
475,000 votes, leads Joe Biden, who has 425,000. Is the unimaginable happening? Is the Nutmeg State flipping to red for the first time since George H.W. Bush carried it in the 1988 general election?
By midnight, frustrated that the media, including Fox News, have not called the election in his favor, Donald Trump holds a press conference in Mar-aLago to boastfully proclaim his reelection. He even alludes to what is happening in the Nutmeg State as evidence of his bipartisan victory “in what will be the biggest election landslide in our nation’s history.”
Back in Hartford, a nagging concern mutes a fullthroated celebration by state Republicans. Keenly aware that 1.6 million state residents, on average, vote in presidential elections, the elephant-in-the-roomquestion remains: “Where are the other 600,000 ballots?”
By 1 a.m. Wednesday, as Trump’s lead over Biden narrows to 40,000 votes, a culprit emerges as Republicans begin to fret about the “blue shift,” a recent voting phenomenon, exacerbated by COVID-19, where vote totals for Democratic candidates tend to rise after polls close due to the inclusion of mail-in and absentee ballots.
By 5 p.m. on Nov. 4, as 300,000 more ballots have been tabulated, the “blue shift” has run its course in Connecticut. Biden wins Connecticut by 120,000 votes.
In Pennsylvania, a crucial state with 20 electoral votes, a similar “blue shift” scenario is unfolding. The president’s 40,000 vote lead over Biden has not changed in 21 hours while an estimated 900,000 mail-in/absentee ballots remain to be tabulated. By Saturday, all valid Pennsylvania votes are counted and at a hastily arranged midday press conference in Harrisburg, the state’s capital, Gov. Tom Wolf and Secretary of State Kathy Boockvar make a stunning announcement: Joe Biden, with 3.1 million votes, is the official winner of the state’s 20 electoral votes and the presidency, with an Electoral College victory of
278 to 260 over Trump.
Confusion, celebration and civil mayhem engulf America. The country is as divided as it was during the Civil War. Trump rants hourly the election was “stolen” from him and claims mail-in ballots cast in “overtime” — his description of ballots lawfully counted in the 96 hours after Nov. 3 — are “illegal.”
Refusing to concede, Trump administration lawyers scheme an alternate path to victory when they instruct the Pennsylvania state legislature, where Republicans hold a 137-114 majority over Democrats, to submit an alternate slate of electors to the Electoral College, a slate committed to Donald Trump. They predicate this bold strategy on two premises: (1) mail-in voting is fraudulent and (2) Article II, Section
1 Clauses 2 and 3 of the U.S. Constitution, which say “each state shall appoint in such manner as the Legislature may direct, a number of electors …” Trump lawyers also move to implement this strategy in Wisconsin, Michigan, Florida, North Carolina, Georgia and Arizona, which have GOP-dominated legislatures.
On Jan. 6, 2021, Vice President Pence presides over a ceremony focused on tabulating electoral votes alphabetically by state but is flummoxed when the roll call comes to Pennsylvania, which has presented two slates of electors to the Electoral College, one for Biden and one for Trump. Pence has three options:
(1) validate the official slate of electors sent to the National Archive by the governor that awards the presidency to Joe Biden; (2) accept the alternate slate of electors submitted by 123 GOP Pennsylvania state legislators that gives the election to the Trump/Pence ticket; or (3) discount both slates and declare the candidate with the most electoral votes — Donald Trump — is the winner.
None of these options are feasible as political pressure builds.
At noon Jan. 20, since no candidate is elected president, by law, the Speaker of the House, Nancy Pelosi, becomes “acting” president and instructs the newly seated 117th Congress to implement Article II, Section 1, Clause 3 of the U.S. Constitution, which says when a president cannot be elected by popular voting, the decision process moves to the House of Representatives, where each state delegation casts one vote for president. A majority of 26 votes wins.
In the current 116th House of Representatives, Republicans hold the majority in 29 delegations while the Democrats lead in 20. With many of the
435 House districts noncompetitive, few expect state majorities to change.
Bottom line: if it gets to this point, Donald J. Trump is reelected. Even though he lost the popular vote — again — to Biden by 10 million ballots.