Data: 40 percent of state COVID cases could have UK strain
The state quietly passed a milestone this week, recording its 7 millionth COVID-19 test, but even as the pace of testing has slowed, laboratory data suggest that the number of cases that could be caused by the B.1.1.7 variant is rising sharply.
The new data released late Thursday by Dr. Nathan Grubaugh, an associate professor of epidemiology at Yale’s School of Public Health, show there were at least 152 confirmed cases of the B.1.1.7 variant at the end of February.
For the week of Feb. 13, nearly 15 percent of the samples Yale tested had characteristics that indicated they could be of the B.1.1.7 strain, although they weren’t confirmed. By the week of Feb. 27, that percentage increased to nearly 28 percent, although the increase from Feb. 20 to Feb. 27 was only about 2.5 percentage points.
Some Yale epidemiologists, including Grubaugh, have questioned whether the state should push back its date for reopening because of the increasing appearance of the variant, but Gov. Ned Lamont reiterated Thursday that he has no plans to change his timetable. The governor announced last week that he was lifting capacity restrictions on restaurants, houses of worship, retailers and most other businesses on March 19. Mandates for social distancing and masks will continue, however.
“While the variant may be expanding and is a bigger piece of the infected community here in the state of Connecticut, it’s not reflected in higher infection rates, and that’s very important,” Lamont said.
While acknowledging they are monitoring the variants closely, state officials have said they aren’t particularly worried because hospitalizations continue to fall even as the percentage of positive COVID tests has hovered between 2 percent and 3 percent.
20 percent to 40 percent of cases could be B.1.1.7
The number of cases of B.1.1.7., commonly referred to as the U.K. variant, have been steadily increasing to the point where the two laboratories doing specific genomic testing to isolate the variant believe it is present in up to 40 percent of the cases in the state now.
The two labs doing the genomic sequencing for the variant, other than the state Department of Public
Health’s own laboratory, are Jackson Laboratories and the Yale School of Public Health. Both have said the variant is more prevalent now in the state than even a few weeks ago.
Mark Adams, director of microbial genomic services and deputy director of JAX Genomic Medicine, said there is no question the number of cases of the variant are higher than what the testing data show.
For example, B.1.1.7 shares a common genome with “regular”
COVID-19, and in January, Jackson lab technicians were finding about
1 in 25 random positive test samples had the common genome, Adams said.
The number is now roughly 21 out of every 25 samples, although Adams cautioned that doesn’t mean every one of those 21 cases is
B.1.1.7.
“So we have a reduction in overall cases while at the same time an increase in the proportion of those cases that have U.K. lineage,” Adams said. “It’s hard to say — maybe about 20 percent, to as much as
40 percent, of all positive cases now are the variant.”
Adams said they have been watching the state’s case positivity rates closely.
“There’s a fair amount of noise, that it is hard to get an idea of the trends, but it is worth keeping an
eye on,” Adams said. “There’s a lot of scientific concern about the U.K. strain and other variants, but I think we’re now getting the epidemiological picture about what it means for the trajectory of the pandemic. And I think it’s still difficult to predict that.”
Not an overwhelming concern
Some Yale officials have been critical of Lamont’s decision to expand the reopening.
Grubaugh called it a “terrible” decision in a recent WNPR radio interview.
But Keith Grant, director of infection prevention at Hartford HealthCare, said Thursday that “Connecticut right now is in a very good place to start having discussions” about reopening more.
Grant said hospital admissions are down about 80 percent in some areas, and the mortality rate from the virus has shifted significantly because of the vaccine — particularly in nursing homes and other areas that have had higher mortality rates.
Also, he said, the state has consistently ranked high in the number of vaccinations administered. Take all that data together, and Grant believes B.1.1.7 isn’t the threat some fear it is.
“So I think we have enough data to be comfortable with where the epidemiology is, and I don’t think
it’s significant at this point in time,” Grant said. “I do think we’re making good progress on our vaccinations. At this point, I don’t think it’s a concern. We need to watch it, but I don’t think it is the overwhelming concern that has been reported at this time.”
Lamont and other state officials have acknowledged they are tracking the variants, not only here but in other areas such as Florida and San Diego — but the increasing number of cases hasn’t swayed them from delaying the planned relaxing of restrictions on March
19.
They believe the number of people that have already been vaccinated, coupled with people who have already had COVID, makes it less likely for B.1.1.7 to cause a major outbreak, even though it is considered much more transmissible than standard COVID-19.
“I’ve seen that it is increasing — it could be the dominant strain — but at least it is not increasing exponentially … and if we did find things were changing, we have the ability to change course,” Lamont said at a press conference earlier this week.
“But right now I think the vaccine is staying ahead of the variant, and that’s slowing its increase. And by the way, the vaccine works against the variant.”