Climate Watch

The March outlook from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center is very similar to the outlook for each month since November: Increased chances of above normal temperatures and above normal precipitation.

Those outlooks worked out well temperature-wise November through January but not for February. The basic drivers of the monthly outlooks are basically unchanged since the autumn: Sea ice extent is below average for this time of year, Bering Sea ocean surface temperatures beyond the ice edge are above normal and ongoing La Niña conditions in the equatorial Pacific Ocean continue to favor a storm track along the Aleutians and into the Gulf of Alaska rather than through the central or northwest Bering Sea.

Historically, March is on average two to three degrees warmer than February, but despite the much-increased sunshine, it’s not unusual for March to finish up as the coldest month of the winter. This happens about one year in a five-year period, which is about as often as December is the coldest winter month in any given winter.

Over the past 114 years, temperatures in Nome have varied by 90°F: from a high of 44°F in 1938 to a low of -46°F in 1971. The lowest March wind chill in Nome (since 1950) was -62°F in 1966. March is historically the driest month of the year, averaging about two-thirds of an inch of melted snow plus any rain. However, the past three years have all seen much above normal precipitation, including the very snowy March 2018, which had the highest March precipitation in more than 80 years. However, March 2016 and 2017 had hardly any snow.