Climate Watch

The climate outlook for November from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center has been issued, but for western Alaska there is no tilt to favor above or below normal temperatures or precipitation.

The Climate Prediction Center also issued a La Niña advisory. For the second straight winter, there are La Niña conditions in the equatorial Pacific Ocean and these are expected to persist through the winter. However, impacts from La Niña on our weather typically are most pronounced after the start of the new year.

November, of course, can bring severe coastal flooding. Most recently, the Bering Sea superstorm in 2011 caused widespread damage around Norton Sound, and the November 1974 storm is the benchmark storm of the later 20th century. Historically we would expect sea ice in the Bering Strait and much of Norton Sound in November, though of course that’s changing rapidly, and nowadays sea ice to St. Lawrence Island is very unlikely to occur in November.

For the 1991-2020 reference period, the normal high temperature in Nome drops from 29°F on Nov. 1, to 20°F by the end of the month. Normal daily low temperatures have an even larger fall, from 24°F on Nov. 1, to 13°F on the 30th.

In most years, the first sub-zero temperatures of the season occur in Nome in November, though days with high temperatures below zero are rare. Since 1907 temperatures in Nome have varied from a high of 50°F on November 1, 1928 to a low of -39°F on November 30, 1948.

Precipitation (rain plus melted snow) typically totals in the threequarter of an inch to an inch and a half range, but has varied between 4.39 inches in 1979, over half of which fell as rain to 0.02 inches in 2012. Snowfall averages about 12 inches but has exceeded two feet four different times, while several very dry Novembers have seen less than an inch accumulation.