Climate Watch
By Rick Thoman
Alaska Climate Specialist Alaska Center for Climate Assessment and Policy, UAF Christmas weather in western Alaska has sometimes been stormy and sometimes tranquil. One of the coldest Christmas’ was in 1954; that year, the high temperature in Nome was only -23°F. 1957 also saw a cold Christmas, with low temperatures of
-42°F at Unalakleet and -32°F be at Nome.
Recent Christmases have not been nearly as cold. So far in the 21st century, only two Christmas Days had a high temperature below zero. Temperatures above freezing on Christmas are also rare, but not unheard of. The mildest Christmas in
Nome was in 1996, which saw a high of 37°F —and believe it or not — in 1971 Wales reported a high of 42°F with a third of an inch of rain from late on Christmas Eve into Christmas morning.
We expect to have a white Christmas every year in western Alaska, at least if we allow for any amount of snow on the ground to qualify as a white Christmas. But what if we ask about how much snow is on the ground for Christmas? To look at this, we’ll use the snowpack water equivalent from the state-of-the-art, high resolution climate analysis model from the Copernicus Service from the European Center. This is for the greater Nome area, not just the Airport, from 1950 through 2020. The graphic shows the Christmas Day snowpack split into three categories: the “typical snowpack” category, then with significantly above and significantly below on either side of the two lines. The interesting bit here is that what constitutes “significantly above average snowpack” has changed substantially in the past 71 years. For example, the most recent Christmas significantly above average snowpack was 2017, but prior to the mid-1960s it would have been ranked as in the “typical snowpack” category. The reason for the change over time in what constitutes above average is easy to see: all of the highest Christmas snowpacks occurred prior to the mid-1990s. We know that 2021 will be a white Christmas, but whatever weather Christmas 2021 brings, all of us here at the Alaska Center for Climate Assessment and Policy at the University of Alaska Fairbanks wish the best for an enjoyable holiday season.