Alaska’s population remained stagnant in 2022
Between July 2021 to July 2022, Alaska added about 451 people to its population, representing an increase of about 0.06 percent, according to estimates released this month by the Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development.
The change is small, but it’s still notable, said Alaska’s State Demographer David Howell: “Prior to 2021, we had lost population for four years.”
More people still are leaving Alaska than are moving to the state, a trend that’s continued every year since 2013. In 2022, net migration— which subtracts out-migrants from in-migrants—resulted in a loss of 2,489 people. This loss was slightly less than it has been in years past, and Howell said this may be because some businesses, such as seafood processing plants, have now reopened after pandemic-related closures.
“As they staffed back up, we saw people migrating to the state that had previously been elsewhere,” he said. Howell explained that this led to a smaller loss to net migration. And despite this loss, Alaska’s population appeared to grow slightly thanks to what demographers call a “natural increase”—when births outnumber deaths.
Alaska’s population is also aging. The population of those 65-and-older grew five percent, while the population of adults between 18 to 64 declined by one percent. The Hoonah-Angoon Census Area had the state’s highest median age: 49.4. The Kusilvak Census Area, meanwhile, was the youngest at 24.4.
Alaska’s aging population is affecting its workforce, a trend seen across the U.S.
“What we’re seeing is this massive Baby Boomer generation that moved here in the 80s and 90s—they started turning 65 in 2010, and they will continue to do so throughout the rest of the decade, with the youngest Baby Boomers actually turning 65 in 2029,” Howell said. Demographers typically use 65 as the cutoff age for the working population. Meanwhile, there is a smaller population entering the workforce to replace them.
“Right now in the state, there’s about the same number of 18-yearolds as there are 64-year-olds,” Howell said. “So you got about the same number of people aging out as aging into the traditional working age.”
The state remains highly transient, and now fewer people are moving to Alaska and staying long enough to establish residency and apply for a Permanent Fund Dividend, Karinne Wiebold, an economist for the state, wrote in the January issue of Alaska Economic Trends Magazine.
“About 20 percent of Alaska’s jobs are filled by nonresidents,” Wiebold wrote. “Some stay—about 10 percent each year—but most come temporarily to work in our seasonal or remote industries: seafood processing, tourism, and oil and gas. A record number of job openings across the country means less draw to Alaska for both temporary and longterm work.”
Wiebold also wrote that those moving away from Alaska are disproportionately in their 20s and 30s, or in other words, “people of working age and those most likely to bring children with them.” Meanwhile, birth rates in the state have been declining rapidly since 2016, Howell said. He said he would be interested to see if this trend hits a bottom soon, or if it turns out that many people were delaying births during the pandemic.
Alaska’s small gains in population last year were not evenly distributed. Of the state’s 30 boroughs and census areas, 26 lost population between 2021 and 2022. The Matanuska-Susitna Borough added the most people, with a net of 2,666. Fairbanks North Star Borough saw the biggest decrease in population, losing 982 people.
The Nome region experienced a slight decrease. The population estimate for the Nome Census Area as of July 2022 was 9,682, compared to 9,715 in July 2021 and 10,046 in April 2020.
“The region does consistently lose population and net migration in general, but in recent years, that natural increase hasn’t been able to make up for the loss in net migration,” Howell said, meaning the number of babies born hasn’t been enough to counteract the loss of people. He added that in general rural areas of Alaska are losing more population.
“More rural areas of the state really lost a lot of population to net migration, more so than they had in the past,” Howell said. “I can’t point to one reason why that would be. Obviously, as the population ages, you may need different services and move to more urban areas. It’s really difficult to say, but it’s definitely something we’ve noticed. People are moving from more rural areas to more urban areas of the state—that’s generally the trend, but it’s been elevated these last few years.”