Takeaways from 1st quarter of NFL season
When evaluating their teams, NFL coaches and general managers like to break their seasons into quarters. The conclusion of Week 4 has teams meeting this week to determine where their teams are and what changes they might need to make as they begin the second quarter. (The two exceptions: Tennessee and Pittsburgh, whose bye week came early after the Titans’ coronavirus outbreak.)
Thanks to the pandemic, this has been a strange and challenging start to the NFL season. Here are four big takeaways from the first four weeks.
YOU HAVE TO WIN WITH OFFENSE
The long-stated concept that defense wins championships ended in the late 1990s and early 2000s when Peyton Manning and Tom Brady entered the NFL. The fact remains that while defenses and running games can help get teams to the playoffs, it’s quarterbacks who win Super Bowls.
This season is turning into an extreme example of just how critical offense is to winning in the NFL. The combined scores in games is averaging a touchdown more than it was last year, and 18 quarterbacks are averaging more than 250 passing yards a game. Russell Wilson tied Manning’s record of 16 touchdowns over the first four games — setting an outrageous 64-score pace. Teams are using presnap motion, twotight end sets and four-wide receiver formations to devastating effect.
You really don’t want to be a defensive coordinator in the NFC. Nine QBs in the conference are on pace for 4,000-yard seasons. Wilson and Aaron Rodgers have been incredible, and have the Seahawks and Packers at 4-0 and looking like serious contenders. Brady and Drew Brees have overcome rough starts for the Buccaneers and Saints, two more teams who will be very competitive in the NFC.
One unseen factor helping offenses: a 50% reduction in holding calls through the first four weeks. That gives QBs more time to throw and doesn’t put offenses in long down-and-distance situations.
INJURIES, POSITIVE TESTS TAKING A TOLL
In the first four weeks, teams have had 385 missed starts — a huge jump over last year’s 302 through four weeks. It’s been particularly brutal for the defending NFC champion San Francisco 49ers, who have lost Nick Bosa, Solomon Thomas and Dee Ford from their defensive line, had each of their top four cornerbacks miss at least one game and seen star tight end George Kittle and quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo miss time.
The Philadelphia Eagles have had to place five offensive linemen on injured reserve and have been playing without most of their wide receivers. The New Orleans Saints were down six starters in Sunday’s win over Detroit. Several teams have been hit hard at cornerback and had to play young guys who aren’t yet ready to start — we’ve seen that happen in Atlanta, Dallas, Minnesota, Jacksonville and elsewhere.
We’re also starting to see the impact of positive coronavirus tests. The Titans may be able to resume their season this week against Buffalo if they don’t have any more positive tests, but it’s unclear how many of the players who did test positive will be available to play. The loss of quarterback Cam Newton ahead of a critical game against the Kansas City Chiefs was a huge blow for the New England Patriots, and it’s possible he misses this week against Denver as well.
NEW COACHES STRUGGLING; OTHERS JOINING HOT SEAT
It was expected that the league’s five new coaches were going to have a particularly tough time this season, with no offseason programs or preseason games, and their combined record is 7-13. Joe Judge of the New York Giants is winless. Washington’s Ron Rivera Dallas’ Mike McCarthy of the Cowboys are 1-3. Matt Rhule is making headway with a young Carolina Panthers team and is 2-2.
The success story is Kevin Stefanski of the Cleveland Browns at 3-1. Stefanski has successfully turned them into a runfirst team, leading the league with 818 yards and boasting a 5.9 yards-per-carry average. That has made life easier for quarterback Baker Mayfield, who is on an offense that is 26th in the league in pass attempts with 116.
Every season begins with coaches on the hot seat, and unfortunately for this year’s group, those seats have only gotten hotter — and for Bill O’Brien, an 0-4 start led to his firing Monday from the Houston Texans. He leaves the team in a difficult position. The Texans have the league’s highest payroll, with so much money going to the offense: four
receivers making a combined $44 million a year, a $39 million quarterback, a $22 million left tackle, an $11 million center and a $13 million running back. They don’t have a first-round pick next year, with it going to the Miami Dolphins as part of the Laremy Tun
sil trade. Watch for Patriots offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels to be a main candidate for the job next year.
Among the others in trouble: Adam Gase of the New York Jets, Matt Patricia of the Detroit Lions, Dan Quinn of the Atlanta Fal
cons, Doug Marrone of the Jacksonville Jaguars, Vic Fangio of Denver and Anthony Lynn of the Chargers.
NFC EAST COULD BE HISTORICALLY BAD
This was the worst division in football a year ago, and through four weeks, it appears to be doing even worse this season. Despite Philadelphia’s Sunday night win over the 49ers, NFC East teams are a combined 2-11-1. The Eagles are in first place even after starting 0-2-1.
Everyone expected Washington and the Giants to struggle. They are in rebuilding mode, with young quarterbacks. The Eagles sort of have an excuse, with injuries having ravaged their offense.
The big surprise has been the Cowboys, who were expected to have a revival under McCarthy. Instead, they’ve racked up big yardage but have been terrible on defense. Coordinator Mike Nolan is trying to install a hybrid unit, mixing 3-4 and 4-3 concepts, and it’s clearly not working. Communication issues are obvious during their games, and it seems as though the system is too complex for the players. They are giving up a remarkable 36.5 points per game. Their one win required a comeback from 19 points down.