Four predictions for the final month

After the completion of Tuesday night’s Dallas Cowboys-Baltimore Ravens game, the NFL will enter the final four weeks of its regular season. It is remarkable that it has made it this far without any major disruptions, given the challenges caused by the coronavirus pandemic, and there are several compelling story lines to watch before the postseason begins.

How will things play out? Here are four predictions for the final four weeks of the NFL season:

THE CHIEFS WILL EDGE THE STEELERS FOR THE AFC’S NO. 1 SEED

Pittsburgh was the NFL’s final unbeaten team before Monday’s home loss to the Washington Football Team, and it is now tied with the Chiefs, at 11-1, atop the AFC. But Kansas City is better positioned to finish the regular season in first place.

That’s because Kansas City has an easier closing schedule. The Chiefs’ final four games feature one major challenge — a road trip in two weeks to face the NFC-leading New Orleans Saints. But if they win that one — which may or may not be a matchup with backup quarterback Taysom Hill if Drew Brees hasn’t returned from injury — they’ve got a realistic shot at a 15-1 record. They play at Miami next week and close with back-to-back home games against the Atlanta Falcons and Los Angeles Chargers.

The Steelers, on the other hand, have to follow Monday night’s loss, which took place just five days after its Wednesday win over Baltimore, by again playing on a short week on the road against the Buffalo Bills. They play at the Cincinnati Bengals the following week but then close against a pair of likely playoff teams in the Indianapolis Colts and Cleveland Browns.

Independent of which team winds up with the top seed and a firstround bye, Kansas City appears to have the stronger chances of making it to the Super Bowl. Even though Ben Roethlisberger has been playing well and is a first-ballot Hall of Famer, the quarterback edge between these teams clearly belongs to Kansas City and Patrick Mahomes. He leads the league with 3,815 yards and has thrown 31 touchdown passes against only two interceptions. In this year of offense, the team with the best quarterback has the edge.

THIS YEAR’S SURPRISE COACH FIRING WILL BE PHILADELPHIA’S DOUG PEDERSON

I wrote last week in comparing the desirability of potential coaching openings that there is a surprise firing almost every year, and this year that could be Pederson.

To be clear, Pederson is a very good coach. He led the Eagles to a phenomenal Super Bowl win over New England with a backup quarterback, and at the time he was considered to be one of the best new coaching hires in years.

But the Eagles are a mess this season. Carson Wentz, who was an MVP candidate during that Super Bowl season before suffering a season-ending ACL tear, has been one of the NFL’s worst quarterbacks this year and was benched during Sunday’s loss at the Green Bay Packers.

But QB isn’t the only issue on offense. The receiving corps is a mess, and the offensive line is worse. Injuries are partially to blame, but owner Jeffrey Lurie will have to look hard at the coaching in addition to the roster decisions of General Manager Howie Roseman.

One factor to watch: It is anticipated that next year will be a challenging one for teams in relation to the salary cap, given the loss in revenue this year brought on by the pandemic. Roseman’s reputation as one of the league’s best cap managers could be a factor in Lurie’s decision-making.

If Pederson is fired, he should be able to find a new job quickly.

THE BROWNS AND DOLPHINS WILL MAKE THE PLAYOFFS

Cleveland and Miami are this year’s Cinderella teams, and their coaches are among the leaders for coach of the year honors. Kevin Stefanski has turned the Browns into one of the NFL’s best running teams in his first year, and his squad seems to be peaking at the right time, with Baker Mayfield throwing for four touchdowns in a big win over the AFC-contending Tennessee Titans on Sunday. At 9-3, Cleveland has a shot at the AFC’s top wild-card spot.

In Miami, Brian Flores has done a similarly impressive job, with his best work coming on defense. At 8-4, the Dolphins are in the mix in the AFC East and wild-card races but have a challenging closing stretch, starting next week with a game against Kansas City. Still, I predict they will make the postseason, along with Cleveland.

Whether either team is capable of pulling off a road playoff win is a different question. Both have benefited from easy schedules, and Cleveland has a negative-15 point differential something you would expect from a team with a losing record, not a playoff contender.

THE GIANTS WILL WIN THE NFC EAST

Give Joe Judge plenty of credit. He has changed the culture of the Giants and has them on a four-game winning streak. Until their great performance in Sunday’s upset win over the Seahawks, it was hard to tell whether the Giants’ defense, which entered the game with a top-10 ranking, was for real. But their stifling of the Seahawks and star quarterback Russell Wilson should cause others to take notice.

Cornerback James Bradberry has proved to be one of the best free agent signings of the offseason. On offense, they’re running the ball well and should get starting quarterback Daniel Jones back from his hamstring injury for next week’s game against Arizona.

The Giants could face a late challenge from Washington, which improved to 5-7 with Monday’s upset, but New York’s season sweep gives it the tiebreaker.

AROUND THE NFL

The Saints and Packers have a clear path to the NFC’s top seeds. Part of the reason is that the Seahawks have cooled off from their hot start, as Sunday’s loss to the Giants reinforced. They no longer look like the Super Bowl favorite that was close to unstoppable on offense earlier in the season.

To catch the Packers for the No. 2 seed, the Rams or Seahawks would have to win out over their final four games. That appears unlikely, given both teams have challenges on the schedule, starting with the Rams playing the Patriots on Thursday. Bill Belichick has been effective in shutting down Los Angeles quarterback Jared Goff, most notably in their Super Bowl victory two seasons ago.

The Week 16 matchup between the Rams and Seahawks should determine which team wins the NFC West and the No. 3 seed.

It’s not surprising that Gregg Williams was fired as defensive coordinator of the New York Jets. His call of an all-out blitz that allowed the Las Vegas Raiders to convert a deep pass in the final seconds and cost the Jets their first win was one of the worst coaching decision in years. At 0-12, the Jets remain the favorites to win the Trevor Lawrence sweepstakes.

Close games have been a defining part of the season. There have been 102 games decided by eight points or fewer — meaning 54 percent of games have been decided by one possession.