2021 NFL Mock Draft: Jags land QB Lawrence
Everyone who saw the 17-point underdogs inexplicably beat the Rams in Los Angeles on Sunday had the same thought immediately after the game.
“Man, even when the Jets win, they lose.”
That’s because the Jaguars now have a 71 percent chance of landing the No. 1 pick, according to ESPN’s FPI.
This changes things. Mostly because Justin Fields’ recent struggles against Northwestern and Indiana killed the momentum he had earlier in the season, leaving Trevor Lawrence on the mountain top all alone.
Fields falls back into a group with Zach Wilson, Trey Lance, Mac Jones and Kyle Trask. All potential first rounders, but none in the same league as Lawrence as a pro prospect.
So the Jets would face a dilemma with the second overall pick. Select a quarterback from the second tier or reinvest in Sam Darnold and get him some one who can protect his blindside in Penei Sewell.
After it was starting to feel like the top three picks were almost set in stone, things just got interesting.
THE PREAMBLE
The NFL draft has become a nice appetizer before our main course in September. A mock version of said draft is meant to educate, and even entertain. At very least, it helps you pass the time.
This is an early attempt at identifying the best players available in this season’s draft class, and which teams they match up well with considering the updated draft order (according to NFL.com).
The closer we get to draft day, the more I attempt to match what teams will actually do with their draft picks as opposed to what I believe they should do.
Last season, I was the fourth most accurate (out of 109) NFL draft prognosticator according to The Huddle Report (most accurate in print). I’m seventh over the past five years.
Follow me on Twitter @UTEddieBrown so we can continue the conversation.
Here’s my updated 2021 NFL mock draft:
FIRST ROUND
1. JACKSONVILLE (1-13) — TREVOR LAWRENCE, QB, CLEMSON, JR.
I’m not sure who was happier the Jets won a game, the Jaguars or Lawrence? There’s a lot of smoke suggesting the top prospect in this draft class prefers staying below the Mason-Dixon line, but let’s be real. Picking between the Jags and Jets is not exactly a Sophie’s Choice scenario. Top needs: QB, OT, CB
2. N.Y. JETS (1-13) — PENEI SEWELL, OT, OREGON, JR.
GM Joe Douglas has three options here. Take whoever he believes is the second best quarterback in this draft class, trade for a stockpile of picks (always my preference) or select a potential franchise left tackle in Sewell. Drafting the 2019 Outland Trophy winner - he opted out of this season due to the threat of COVID-19 — would enhance Sam Darnold’s prospects of success in Gotham. He didn’t allow a pressure, hurry or hit in nine of 14 games as a sophomore. Top needs: QB, Edge, DB
3. CINCINNATI (3-10-1) — RASHAWN SLATER, OL, NORTHWESTERN, SR.
It would be a personal affront to Joe Burrow if owner/GM Mike Brown doesn’t pick an offensive lineman in the first round. I’m not sure Slater rises this high, so it would make more sense to trade down for him, but he’s not a bad consolation prize if Brown misses out on Sewell. He handled Chase Young as a junior while playing left tackle and didn’t allow a single sack the entire season. He’s versatile and talented enough to play all five offensive line positions. Unfortunately for the Bengals, he can’t do it all at once. Slater opted out of this season due to COVID. Top needs: OT, CB, Edge
4. ATLANTA (4-10) — MAC JONES, QB, ALABAMA, JR.
I imagine the new General Manager will want to target Matt Ryan’s heir apparent if the Falcons end up
drafting this high. Jones benefits from a great supporting cast in Tuscaloosa, but he’s an accurate, decisive passer who has a QBR of 95.6 (first in the nation) and will likely win the Heisman Trophy. Top needs: Edge, S, RB
5. CAROLINA (4-10) — ZACH WILSON, QB, BYU, JR.
Teddy Bridgewater is nothing more than a bridge quarterback at this point, but to whom? Imagine Wilson in the system that made Joe Burrow a star. The competition level hasn’t been the strongest, but his performance has been impressive - he’s passed for 3,692 yards (third in the nation) and 33 touchdowns (second in the nation) against only three interceptions. The Davey O’Brien semifinalist’s arm talent and improvisation skills are equally impressive. Top needs: OT, LB, CB
6. MIAMI FROM HOUSTON (4-10) — JA’MARR CHASE, WR, LSU, JR.
The Dolphins are desperate for wide receivers who can get open. The 2019 Biletnikoff Award winner is another potential top-10 selection who opted out this season because of COVID. Top needs: WR, OL, LB
7. PHILADELPHIA (4-9-1) — PATRICK SURTAIN II, CB, ALABAMA, JR.
Former All-Pro Darius Slay has been inconsistent at best during his first season in Philly and Nickell Robey-Coleman is headed for free agency. Surtain, a former five-star recruit, has NFL DNA (father was an All-Pro corner who played 11 seasons) and prototypical traits. He was recently named the SEC Defensive Player of the Year. Top needs: OL, DB, LB
8. L.A. CHARGERS (5-9) — CALEB FARLEY, CB, VIRGINIA TECH, JR.
The Chargers don’t have a cornerback under the age of 31 signed beyond this season. Farley is a physical press corner with elite athleticism and size (6-foot-2, 197 pounds) who also opted out due to COVID. Top needs: OL, TE, Edge
9. DALLAS (5-9) — MICAH PARSONS, LB, PENN ST., JR.
The Cowboys allowed 30-plus points for the eighth time this season on Sunday. Only the Jets and Raiders have allowed more such games (nine each). Parsons is another elite prospect who opted out of the 2020 season, citing “the potential risk to the health and wellbeing” of his young son. Top needs: Edge, DB, OL
10. N.Y. GIANTS (5-9) — GREGORY ROUSSEAU, EDGE, MIAMI, SO.
The Giants’ pass rush has been non-existent the past two weeks. It’s been almost two decades since a Hurricane defensive end was taken in the first round ( Jerome McDougle in 2003). Rousseau finished with 15.5 sacks in 13 games as a redshirt freshman, but opted out of the 2020 season due to COVID-19 concerns. Top needs: OT, Edge, LB
11. DETROIT (5-9) — JAYLEN WADDLE, WR, ALABAMA, JR.
Kenny Golladay, Marvin Jones and Danny Amendola are all unre
stricted free agents. I don’t suspect Waddle’s broken ankle will impact his draft stock much (a recent report has him potentially returning for the College Football Playoffs). He was off to an incredible start - 25 receptions, 557 yards and four touchdowns in four games - after showing promise as a sophomore. Top needs: WR, LB, DT
12. SAN FRANCISCO (5-9) — JAYCEE HORN, CB, SOUTH CAROLINA, JR.
Yes, the NFC champs have dealt with an obscene amount of injuries this season (and the adversity of having to play some of their home games in a different state because of COVID), but they also failed to address two glaring needs this past offseason: the interior offensive line and cornerback. The 49ers currently don’t have a corner under contract after this season. Adding Horn — his father Joe was a Pro Bowl wide receiver — would give Richard Sherman someone to mentor if he returns (it seems unlikely at this point) or secure the future Hall of Famer’s replacement. He’s a very talented press corner with elite speed, good size (6-foot-1, 205 pounds) and can make plays in run support. And there’s clearly a pipeline between the Bay Area and South Carolina (See: Deebo Samuel and Javon Kinlaw). Top needs: OL, DB, Edge
13. DENVER (5-9) — JEREMIAH OWUSU-KORAMOAH, LB, NOTRE DAME, SR.
Vic Fangio’s best defenses have historically featured the inside linebacker. Owusu-Koramoah is an explosive athlete who can make plays from sideline-to-sideline. The ACC Defensive Player of the Year was recently named a finalist for the Butkus Award (nation’s top linebacker) and Bednarik Award (defensive player of the year). Top needs: CB, Edge, LB
14. MINNESOTA (6-8) — WYATT DAVIS, OG, OHIO ST., JR.
Rookie Ezra Cleveland has thrived at right guard (a position he was forced into due to injuries) and drafting Davis would free Cleveland up to return to tackle. Davis is a system-proof, plug-and-play starter at the next level and a potential All-Pro. Top needs: DL, FS, OL
15. NEW ENGLAND (6-8) — JUSTIN FIELDS, QB, OHIO ST., JR.
Cam Newton only has five touchdown passes against 10 interceptions. Fields was recently named a semifinalist for both the Maxwell Award (best player in college football) and the Davey O’Brien Award (nation’s top quarterback). Top needs: QB, WR, LB
16. CHICAGO (7-7) — CHRISTIAN DARRISAW, OT, VIRGINIA TECH, SR.
The pick is a wide receiver if Allen Robinson leaves during free agency. Otherwise, an upgrade at tackle is needed after it appears the interior line has been shored up. Darrisaw could find his way into the top 15 if he tests as well as I believe he will during the draft process (assuming we are able to have a combine or pro days). Top needs: OT, WR, QB
17. LAS VEGAS (7-7) — KWITY PAYE, EDGE, MICHIGAN, SR.
For as much draft capital as the Raiders have spent recently on their defense, you’d expect better results by now. There have been flashes, but nothing concrete yet. Paye is an upside pick who hadn’t produced at an elite level before (he only had 9.5 sacks in his first three seasons in Ann Arbor), but there’s athletic indicators he will continue to improve as a pass rusher. According to Pro Football Focus, Paye had a 27 percent pass-rush win rate - tops in the Big Ten and significantly better than the next-best player - which is typically defined as how often a player beats his blocker within 2.5 seconds. He’s already an impressive run defender against the spread offense, which is becoming increasingly important in the NFL. Top needs: DL, OG, DB
18. BALTIMORE (9-5) — DEVONTA SMITH, WR, ALABAMA, SR.
This is how the Ravens consistently outperform other teams in the draft. Great players who should be drafted higher fall to them consistently for a myriad of reasons. Smith will likely fall because of his slight build or average speed, but he actually had a better statistical season than 2020 first-round picks Henry Ruggs and Jerry Jeudy last year, leading the Crimson Tide with 1,256 receiving yards and 14 touchdowns. He has taken his game to another level since Waddle was sidelined - he has 955 yards on 53 receptions and 13 touchdowns his last six games and has forced his way into the Heisman conversation. Top needs: Edge, OL, WR
19. WASHINGTON (6-8) — KYLE TRASK, QB, FLORIDA, SR.
It’s looking like a quarterback will definitely be the target with Dwayne Haskins’ lack of growth on the field (and off of it). Trask has legit pocket presence and a surprising touch for such a strong arm. He has 43 touchdown passes (first in the nation) against only five interceptions, 4,125 passing yards (first in the nation) and a QBR of 90.4 (second in the nation). Top needs: OL, WR, QB
20. ARIZONA (8-6) — KYLE PITTS, TE, FLORIDA, JR.
There are other needs, but adding a matchup nightmare like Pitts to the Kyler Murray-DeAndre Hopkins dynamic duo would generate instant ulcers to most defensive coordinators in the NFL. Pitts is definitely more receiver than complete tight end, but he’s a valuable chess piece either way - his 17.9 yards per reception and 12 touchdowns in only eight games are indicative of that. He was recently named a finalist for the Biletnikoff Award (nation’s best receiver) and the Mackey Award (nation’s top tight end). Top needs: CB, OL, Edge
21. MIAMI (9-5) — ZAVEN COLLINS, LB, TULSA, JR.
The Dolphins are only a few players away from fielding a potentially elite defense. Collins has the size (6-4, 260), athleticism and positional flexibility that will cause most defensive coordinators to drool. In eight games, he has four sacks, four interceptions (two pick-sixes), two forced fumbles and a fumble recovery. He was also chosen the first unanimous American Athletic Conference defensive player of the year. Top needs: WR, OL, LB
22. JACKSONVILLE FROM L.A. RAMS (9-5) — SAMUEL COSMI, OT, TEXAS, JR.
Cam Robinson is a free agent and Cosmi is likely an upgrade anyways. You can’t develop a young quarterback if you don’t have a decent offensive line. It’s science. Cosmi dominated in 26 games at right tackle. He’s doing the same at left tackle so far this season. Top needs: QB, OT, CB
23. TAMPA BAY (9-5) — RASHAD WEAVER, DL, PITTSBURGH, SR.
Ndamukong Suh, Rakeem Nunez-Roches and Steve McLendon will all be free agents. Weaver has harassed quarterbacks all season long while producing 7.5 sacks (tied for 14th in the nation) with three forced fumbles (tied for fifth in the nation). He’s expected to sit for the remainder of the season and has signed with an agent to shift his focus to NFL draft preparation. Top needs: Edge, WR, DT
24. N.Y. JETS FROM SEATTLE (10-4) — TRAVIS ETIENNE, RB, CLEMSON, SR.
Landing the top offensive tackle and running back in the 2021 draft would go a long ways in rebuilding a floundering offense. I was shocked when Etienne decided to return for his senior season. He was recently named a finalist for the Doak Walker Award (best running back) for the third straight season. Top needs: QB, Edge, DB
25. INDIANAPOLIS (10-4) — CARLOS BASHAM JR., EDGE, WAKE FOREST, SR.
Justin Houston, Al-Quadin Muhammad and Denico Autry are due to become free agents. Basham is a strong, athletic, productive pass rusher who can disrupt an offense. He had 11 sacks and 18 tackles for loss as a first-team All-ACC selection in 2019 and opened 2020 with a sack in each of his first five games. Top needs: QB, Edge, CB
26. CLEVELAND (10-4) — JOSEPH OSSAI, EDGE, TEXAS, JR.
The Browns need to upgrade their pass rush outside of Myles Garrett, but they also need to improve their linebacker corps. Ossai is the best of both worlds. He’s a relentless pass rusher, but is also capable of being impactful against the run and in pass coverage. Top needs: Edge, LB, S
27. NEW ORLEANS (10-4) — TREY LANCE, QB, NORTH DAKOTA ST., SO.
Somewhere between Drew Brees and Taysom Hill lies Lance. A showcase game against Central Arkansas didn’t really do his draft stock any favors, but there’s too much arm talent and playmaking ability to deny here. Top needs: QB, DL, CB
28. TENNESSEE (10-4) — RASHOD BATEMAN, WR, MINNESOTA, JR.
Corey Davis’ price tag keeps going up every single week. Bateman is a big receiver (6-2, 210) with excellent hands who was eighth in the country with 20.3 yards per catch in 2019. The Gophers haven’t had a first-round pick since 2006 when running back Laurence Maroney went No. 21 overall to New England. Top needs: OT, WR, Edge
29. GREEN BAY (11-3) — NICK BOLTON, LB, MISSOURI, JR.
The Packers run defense has not improved by much and remains a significant weakness - they’re tied for 19th in the NFL allowing 4.5 yards per carry. A converted safety, Bolton is a thumper in the middle who is equally adept in coverage and was just named a finalist for the Butkus Award. Top needs: OL, LB, CB
30. PITTSBURGH (11-3) — LIAM EICHENBERG, OT, NOTRE DAME, SR.
It’s clear Ben Roethlisberger is in the twilight of his career, but the Steelers could lose multiple starters on the offensive line in free agency and they would likely have to trade up for a quarterback. Eichenberg has been a dominant force at left tackle for the nation’s best offensive line against some of the best pass rushers the country has to offer (Pitt’s Patrick Jones II, Duke’s Chris Rumph and the barrage Clemson throws at you). He has only allowed one hit on the quarterback this season, according to Pro Football Focus. He hasn’t allowed a sack since September of 2018 - 32 straight games. Top needs: OT, Edge, QB
31. BUFFALO (11-3) — ERIC STOKES, CB, GEORGIA, JR.
Finding a viable option across from All-Pro cornerback Tre’Davious White will be a priority in the offseason. Stokes is built thin, but remains an impressive athlete who maintains his physicality and is currently playing better than anyone at the position in the entire nation. Top needs: CB, OT, LB
32. KANSAS CITY (13-1) — ALEX LEATHERWOOD, OT, ALABAMA, SR.
The greatness of Patrick Mahomes covers up a lot of warts. The Chiefs offensive line needs an infusion of talent. The former fivestar recruit has shown he can be equally dominant at right guard or left tackle and was recently named a finalist for the Outland Trophy (best interior lineman). Top needs: WR, OL, Edge