Michigan new jobless claims steady

National claims fall to lowest level in a year but still historically high

New Michigan jobless claims remained steady last week while dropping significantly nationally as more people return to work, but new and continuing claims remain historically high compared to pre-pandemic levels of a year ago.

New claims filed in Michigan were 11,437, down slightly from the 12,285 adjusted new claims filed the week before, according to numbers released Thursday by the U.S. Labor Department.

Nationally, new claims fell sharply to 684,000 from 781,000 the week before, the lowest level in a year.

Continuing claims in Michigan, which lag by a week, fell 16.5% to 134,536 from 161,290 the previous week as stimulus checks have started to hit individual bank accounts and the American Rescue Plan continued federal assistance for the unemployed.

In Michigan, however, continuing claims and initial jobless claims remain at historic highs and above the levels of a year ago before the pandemic kicked in and caused economic shutdowns and broad layoffs.

Nationally, some analysts are increasingly optimistic that hiring will accelerate quickly this year. Two senior fellows at the Brookings Institution have forecast that employers will add a substantial 700,000 to 1 million jobs per month, on average, over the next 10 months. At the higher end of that estimate, the economy by year’s end would have regained all the 9.5 million jobs that remain lost to the pandemic.

There are still risks that could frustrate such hopes

nationally. The number of new daily coronavirus infections has leveled off, though hospitalizations and deaths continue to fall. And as many states have dropped or relaxed pandemic-related restrictions on gatherings and business activity, another wave of infections could weigh on the economy.

Though growth may accelerate this year, hiring often lags behind economic growth as businesses wait to see if rising demand is sustainable.

What’s more, roughly 4 million Americans stopped looking for work during the pandemic and aren’t counted in the unemployment rate. Most of them will need to be rehired for the economic recovery to be fully complete.

In Michigan, a sign that full economic recovery may take a while is that the state Unemployment Insurance Agency provides estimates of the number of unemployed by county in the thousands.

The estimates are particularly high in southeast Michigan, which has the majority of the state’s population. Through March 22, the agency estimates 227,800 people are unemployed in Wayne County including Detroit, 87,660 in Oakland County, and 78,700 in Macomb County.

To date, Michigan has paid out $31.5 billion in jobless assistance to 3.18 million unique claimants, including $5.48 billion from state funds.

Though growth may accelerate this year, hiring often lags behind economic growth as businesses wait to see if rising demand is sustainable. What’s more, roughly 4 million Americans stopped looking for work during the pandemic and aren’t counted in the unemployment rate. Most of them will need to be rehired for the economic recovery to be fully complete.